The trade deadline has passed, and it was one of the most hectic in recent memory, with the Twins at the epicenter of the chaos. The Twins absolutely unloaded, dealing 10 players from their active roster in 9 separate deals, 7 of which came on the day of the deadline. Of the players dealt, all but Carlos Correa were either impending free agents or relievers. It's incredibly difficult to process, and I'm having a tough time grasping it all myself. Heading into the All-Star break, the Twins were just two games below .500 and could've played themselves into a position to buy. It was always a possibility that they ended up sellers, but it'd be tough to believe anybody who said they saw this coming.
The sale itself is certainly worthy of questioning. The team has severely underperformed expectations for the better part of a calendar year now, but it also features (featured?) an incredibly talented group, one that is still headlined by names such as Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Pablo López, and Joe Ryan. On the other hand, there could be ownership turnover soon, and the questions surrounding that situation certainly lead to all sorts of unknowns. Perhaps a clean slate is attractive to prospective buyers, and a team with little money on the books, a deep farm system, and all sorts of room for creativity around the aforementioned core is about as clean of a slate as is imaginable. Or maybe Derek Falvey simply felt that a large sell-off was necessary to retool around the aforementioned core. It's anybody's guess as to what the true driver of the massive, unexpected selloff was.
With all of that being said, it's an incredible opportunity for analysis and reflection, and ranking the deals from best to worst is a great place to start. The rankings factor in the returns relative to my personal expectations, as well as the necessity of trading the players involved. Prospect rankings are based on MLB.com's Top 30 prospect lists.
Ranking the deals from the Twins' trade deadline fire sale from best to worst
1. Griffin Jax to the Rays
Rays received: RHP Griffin Jax
Twins received: RHP Taj Bradley
Griffin Jax has been an anchor for the back end of the Twins bullpen for the last few years now, and despite mixed results, the peripherals have always been great for Jax. He generates chase, whiffs, and strikeouts as well as anybody in the league, and does have 72 strikeouts in 46 innings this season despite a 4.50 ERA. He is under team control through 2027.
Taj Bradley is perhaps the most exciting piece that the Twins received in all of the chaos today. He was a very highly regarded pitching prospect a few years ago and is currently in the midst of his third big league season. Bradley is still just 24, and in 21 starts this year, he has totaled 111.1 innings with a 4.61 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts to 44 walks. The results haven't been great, but the potential is easy to see with Bradley. Just last year, he racked up 154 strikeouts in 138 innings. Bradley likely steps into the Twins' rotation immediately, and fans should be very excited to see him as a part of the rotation for the years to come.
2. Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak to the Tigers
Tigers received: RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Randy Dobnak
Twins received: C Enrique Jimenez (DET #14 prospect)
The reason that I ranked this one so highly is mainly because I didn't expect the Twins to get much of anything of value for Chris Paddack. He has struggled mightily this season outside of a short stretch of dominance, and will be a free agent at the end of the season. Randy Dobnak, as beloved as he is in Minnesota, was also offloaded in this deal, saving the Twins a little bit more money in this deal, between the rest of his owed salary for this season and an expected buyout at the end of the season.
Jimenez ranked as the #14 prospect for the Tigers and slots in at #24 for the Twins. He's a 19-year-old switch-hitter in the midst of his third professional season and provides the Twins with catching prospect depth that they were desperately in need of. It's not a flashy deal, but it's certainly more than I expected out of a Chris Paddack trade.
3. Willi Castro to the Cubs
Cubs received: UTL Willi Castro
Twins received: RHP Ryan Gallagher (CHC #8 prospect) and RHP Sam Armstrong
Willi Castro was all but certain to be dealt at the deadline due to the fact that he will be a free agent at the end of the season. An All-Star in 2024, he's been a very valuable piece of the Twins for the past few years, playing everywhere but catcher and first base during his time in Minnesota. He's about as good a utility player as you'll find, which in itself is impressive considering he was a minor league signing prior to the 2023 season.
Ryan Gallagher, 22 years old, was a 6th-round pick in last year's MLB draft, and slots in as the #16 prospect for the Twins. His first pro season has been impressive, as he has totaled 84 innings between High-A and Double-A to the tune of a 3.43 ERA with 96 strikeouts to 20 walks. Armstrong, 24, has a 4.62 ERA in 89.2 innings at Double-A this season. Overall, it's a very respectable return for two months of a utility player.
4. Brock Stewart to the Dodgers
Dodgers received: RHP Brock Stewart
Twins received: OF James Outman
This is a tough one to gauge, and half of that is because Brock Stewart is tough to put a value on. On the one hand, he's been excellent for the Twins this season and was excellent in 2023, the last time Twins fans had reason to be happy. He is also under team control through the 2027 season. On the other hand, he's a 33-year-old reliever who hasn't really ever put together a fully healthy season. Getting Outman is probably pretty fair value for Stewart, as much as he will be missed.
James Outman, 28, totaled 3.4 bWAR in his rookie season in 2023, putting together a season good enough to finish third in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Since then, however, Outman has struggled offensively at the major league level. He has only played 75 major league games between last season and this season, bouncing between the big leagues and Triple-A. His outfield defense and speed are both elite, and if he can get back to being the hitter that he was in 2023, Outman could be a huge acquisition for the Twins.
5. Jhoan Durán to the Phillies
Phillies received: RHP Jhoan Durán
Twins received: C Eduardo Tait (PHI #4 and MLB #56 prospect) and RHP Mick Abel (PHI #6 and MLB #91 prospect)
Trading Jhoan Durán is certainly a move worth questioning. The flamethrower has been dominant since debuting in 2022. Between a fastball that has nearly touched 105 MPH, a splinker that touches 100 MPH, and a hammer of a knuckle curve, he has been one of the best closers in baseball and will certainly be missed at the back end of the Twins bullpen. Durán also had one of the most electric walkouts in all of baseball, one that had become beloved by Twins fans and was always something to look forward to at Target Field. Trading Durán makes some sense on paper, but heading into the deadline, the idea seemed to be that the Twins would move their closer if they were "blown away," and this doesn't feel like a "blow away" type of deal. The Twins were reportedly asking for the Phillies' top prospect, RHP Andrew Painter, which was an idea that I pitched just over a week ago. Maybe that was never going to happen, but the main point here is that this deal just feels like the type of value in a deal that is made out of necessity, not a deal that was made because a front office was "blown away."
The Twins did still receive a very nice pair of prospects in this trade. Eduardo Tait is just 18 and has already reached High-A, showing flashes of some serious raw power. He also gives the Twins a legitimate catching prospect that they desperately needed. Abel, 23, got his first taste of the big leagues earlier this season. The results were mixed, as he posted a 5.06 ERA over 6 starts with 21 strikeouts and 9 walks in 25 innings. He has, however, been excellent in Triple-A this season. If things go right, he could be a staple in the Twins rotation for years to come.
6. Harrison Bader to the Phillies
Phillies received: OF Harrison Bader
Twins received: OF Hendry Mendez (PHI #12 prospect) and RHP Geremy Villoria
Harrison Bader is another one who was bound to be dealt by the Twins. He has a mutual option for the 2026 season that he will more than likely decline to become a free agent. It didn't take long for Bader to become a fan favorite in Minnesota. He has accumulated 2.8 bWAR in 96 games this season, showcasing outstanding outfield defense and somewhat of a resurgence offensively.
The return here is fine, although I expected a little bit more for a player on a 4.5-WAR full-season pace. Mendez, a 20-year-old outfielder, has an .808 OPS at Double-A this season. He also bats left-handed, which is notable considering the Twins' pile of left-handed hitting outfielders. He slots in at #20 on the Twins' Top 30 prospect list. Villoria is a 16-year-old who was signed out of Venezuela by the Phillies in January.
7. Danny Coulombe to the Rangers
Rangers received: LHP Danny Coulombe
Twins received: LHP Garrett Horn
The reason this trade is ranked so low is that it really surprised me to see Coulombe dealt for an unranked prospect. He has been outstanding this season, as he owns a 1.16 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 31 innings this season. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season, but he will be a huge help to the Rangers bullpen as they push for a playoff spot.
Garrett Horn, 22 years old, was a 6th-round pick in last year's MLB draft. In 9 minor league starts this season, he has totaled 24.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts to 6 walks. The results are good, and perhaps I'm being too harsh here, or maybe I'm just overvaluing a 35-year-old rental reliever. It's just tough for me to get excited about this one.
8. Louis Varland and Ty France to the Blue Jays
Blue Jays received: RHP Louis Varland and 1B Ty France
Twins received: OF Alan Roden and LHP Kendry Rojas (TOR #5 prospect)
This one is really hard to comprehend. Beyond Louie being from Minnesota, playing college baseball in Minnesota, and spending the entirety of his professional career with the Twins, it felt completely unnecessary to trade Varland right now. He is 27, in the midst of his first season as a full-time reliever, and won't be a free agent until after the 2030 season. Varland has seen great results in his first season as a converted reliever with a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings. Sure, he's not an ELITE reliever yet, but there's also plenty of reason to believe he can become one. I just can't wrap my head around dealing Louie Varland. Ty France, however, made sense to trade. He hasn't provided much offense to the Twins, and he's a free agent at the end of the season. He seemed like a borderline DFA candidate, so good for the Twins for getting him into a deadline deal.
The return here isn't bad, all things considered. Kendry Rojas is 22, and between four minor league levels this season, has totaled 41.2 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 62 strikeouts to just 9 walks. He slots in as the Twins' #7 prospect and their top left-handed pitching prospect. Stop me if you've heard this before, but Roden, 25, is a left-handed hitting outfielder. He has struggled in his first taste of the big leagues this season with a .589 OPS in 43 games. However, he has hit very well in Triple-A and should provide the Twins with another nice outfield option, whether that be immediately, later this season, or even next season.
9. Carlos Correa to the Astros
Astros received: SS Carlos Correa, $33M
Twins received: LHP Matt Mikulski
In perhaps the most shocking deal of the entire deadline, the Twins dealt Carlos Correa back to the Astros, and they will also cover $33M of the remaining money on his contract. Maybe this will be an unpopular opinion, but I just can't get behind this one at all. It's mindblowing to me that a bad half-season convinced the Twins that Carlos Correa's contract was so far underwater that they would benefit by shipping him out in a complete salary dump while eating a third of the remaining money on his deal. Correa was arguably the biggest free agent acquisition in Twins history and was supposed to be a cornerstone of the team for the better part of a decade next to Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and others. He was a huge clubhouse voice, a mentor to young players, and a player who will be a really difficult loss for the Twins. There's no denying that Correa has had a rough season to this point, but just last year he accumulated 3.7 bWAR in only 86 games. This deal leaves the Twins without a clear future shortstop and with a hole in the middle of their lineup.