We are now just over a week from the MLB trade deadline, and the Twins seem to be trending towards selling. After winning three consecutive series heading into the All-Star break, they came out of the break and lost back-to-back games to a historically bad Rockies team before salvaging the third game and avoiding a sweep. Now, they've dropped the series opener to the Dodgers in heartbreaking fashion, and are looking at two more uphill battles with Simeon Woods-Richardson opposing Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight and Chris Paddack facing off against Tyler Glasnow tomorrow. Following the series versus the Dodgers is a six-game homestand with the Nationals and Red Sox coming to town. It's certainly possible that the Twins catch fire and win six or seven of these games and are sitting at or above .500 on July 31. However, selling feels like the most likely path for this team as of today, and that doesn't have to be a bad thing.
If the Twins do choose to sell, the most likely names to be dealt include Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Chris Paddack, all of whom are impending free agents. Beyond that group, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán, and Griffin Jax are all drawing significant interest, but are all under team control through the 2027 season. While the Twins appear to be willing to listen on their star pitchers, it would likely take a very significant offer for the team to deal from this group, especially Ryan.
While selling off short-term assets would be discouraging to fans and perhaps signal a white flag being waved on this season, that doesn't necessarily have to be the case. When the Twins entered this season as favorites to win the AL Central, the majority of contributions were expected to come from Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. While Buxton and Ryan were All-Stars and look like MVP and Cy Young candidates, respectively, the rest of that group has totaled 2.8 bWAR to this point in the season due to a combination of regression, some bad luck, and injuries. If the Twins are going to make a run and sneak back into contention, it's much more likely to be due to improved play by that group of players than it is to be on the backs of guys like Harrison Bader and Willi Castro. Losing those depth pieces would certainly deplete the current roster and its depth, but it shouldn't signal to anyone that the team is completely giving up. Let's look into what trading some of those depth pieces could look like.
4 trade ideas as the Twins trend towards selling
Trade #1: Chris Paddack to the Astros
Astros receive: RHP Chris Paddack
Twins receive: RHP Ethan Pecko
The Astros are in need of starting pitching, as are a number of teams. Paddack has had a very up-and-down season, and his ERA currently sits at 5.14 while his strikeout numbers are at the lowest of his career. He has also totaled 105 innings on the year, and guys who can eat innings are valuable to playoff teams down the stretch. Perhaps a change of scenery could help Paddack recapture a more effective version of himself.
Pecko, 22, ranks as the Astros' #8 prospect per MLB.com. This season, he has totaled 37 innings at Double-A, posting a 5.11 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 14 walks. He wouldn't slot into the top of Twins prospect lists, but acquiring any sort of value for Paddack, who has struggled this season and almost certainly will not be retained by the Twins this offseason, would be a plus.
Trade #2: Danny Coulombe to the Yankees
Yankees receive: LHP Danny Coulombe
Twins receive: RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, OF Everson Pereira
Coulombe would provide a late-inning relief option to a Yankees bullpen that, like many, could always use another dominant lefty. He has been outstanding for the Twins this season, posting a 0.65 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 27.2 innings with 29 strikeouts and 7 walks. Coulombe is a rental, as he will become a free agent after this season, but we have seen huge price tags on rental relievers in recent seasons, and there's plenty of reason to believe that the Twins would receive a very nice return if they were to trade their lefty.
Rodriguez-Cruz, a 21-year-old right-hander, has had a very nice year at High-A for the Yankees this season and was recently promoted to Double-A. In 89.2 innings between the two levels, he has a 2.41 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts to 37 walks. He currently ranks as the Yankees' #7 prospect. Pereira, 24, has put up excellent numbers at Triple-A the last two seasons after earning a call-up in 2023. In 63 games at Triple-A this season, he is slashing .258/.357/.525 with 18 homers, although his strikeout numbers are a concern. He currently ranks as the Yankees' #13 prospect.
Trade #3: Willi Castro to the Padres
Padres receive: UTL Willi Castro
Twins receive: RHP Braden Nett, INF Rosman Verdugo
Castro is a fit on any team due to his versatility, being someone who can realistically play six different positions on the field. He has been one of the Twins' better bats this season too, slashing .258/.350/.435 with 10 homers, 14 doubles, and 2 triples in 78 games. The Padres are one of the more aggressive teams in the league when it comes to trading, and certainly would enjoy the increased depth that Castro would give them.
Nett, 23 years old, and Verdugo, 20, rank as the Padres' #9 and #24 prospects, respectively. Nett has made 16 starts at Double-A this season, totaling 71.1 innings to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP with 82 strikeouts and 34 walks. Verdugo has spent the entirety of this season at High-A, slashing .215/.358/.401 with 10 homers and 15 doubles, although his strikeout numbers are high. The pair would give the Twins a couple of nice additions to their farm system.
Trade #4: Jhoan Durán and Harrison Bader to the Phillies
Phillies receive: RHP Jhoan Durán, OF Harrison Bader
Twins receive: RHP Andrew Painter, RHP Eiberson Castellano, C Caleb Ricketts
Here's the big one. Yes, it entails parting with Durán, who is under team control for the next two seasons after this one. But, the Twins bullpen is deep, and even without Durán, they'd begin next season with Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and Brock Stewart at the back end, and that's before any potential offseason additions. Teams get desperate for bullpen help at the deadline, and the Twins could receive an offer such as this one that is simply too good to turn down.
Speaking of teams getting desperate at the deadline, insert the Phillies. Their core is aging, and they are likely nearing the end of their window as World Series contenders. That's not to suggest that they will hit a wall next season, but the majority of their core players are on the wrong side of 30. In addition to that, they will be without José Alvarado for the postseason. We've seen relievers with less control and pedigree than Durán net massive packages at recent trade deadlines, so prying him from the Twins would take a lot. Perhaps Durán paired with Bader, who is having perhaps the best offensive season of his career, would be enough to convince the Phillies to part with their top prospect.
Painter, 22, ranks as the #8 prospect in baseball. He missed the past two seasons while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, but has been healthy this season. There has been some rust, but there's still plenty of reason to believe that Painter has future frontline starter potential. Castellano, 24, has been on the shelf with an injury for nearly 2 months, but was selected by the Twins in this past offseason's Rule 5 draft, indicating at least some level of interest. He ranks as the Phillies' #19 prospect. Ricketts, a 25-year-old catcher, ranks as the team's #29 prospect.
Potential remaining 26-man roster
Despite dealing five players currently on their 26-man roster, the Twins would still be left with plenty of talent and an outside shot at contending this season if they can catch fire. Here's a look at what the roster could look like, when healthy, without these five players.
Starting pitchers: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods-Richardson
Relief Pitchers: Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louis Varland, Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Anthony Misiewicz, Michael Tonkin, Travis Adams
Catchers: Ryan Jeffers, Chrisitan Vázquez
Infielders: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Brooks Lee, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Ty France
Outfielders: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.