2015 Twins: Who Burns The Basepaths?
The Minnesota Twins are set to head to Fort Myers to kick off Spring Training in a relatively short period of time. With manager Paul Molitor embarking upon his first season with the Twins, you can expect some dynamics with the team to change. Noted as more of a believer in advanced statistics than Ron Gardenhire, it remains to be seen what kind of strategy Molitor will put in place.
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One thing is for certain, Paul Molitor will want the Twins to be better on the basepaths than they were a season ago. After watching the Kansas City Royals steal runs and put themselves in solid position because of key decisions in the playoffs, the Twins have a lot to improve upon. In 2014, only four Twins players stole double-digit bases, and one of them (Sam Fuld) is no longer on the team.
With some top prospect talent possessing a decent amount of speed, as well as the Twins looking to increase their scoring chances, Molitor could show an increased desire to swipe bases. Let’s take a look at who should pace the Twins in that category.
Aug 20, 2013; Ft Myers, FL, USA; Fort Myers Miracle center fielder Byron Buxton (7) runs to second to steal the base during the sixth inning against the Charlotte Stone Crabs at Hammond Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
5. Byron Buxton
This may be a bit of a reach, but I think it’s a logical prediction. Note that last season, the Twins 5th highest stolen base total was owned by Eduardo Nunez who stole nine bases across 72 games. I believe this season, he will be competing for time with better players, and will be used more in a rotational role.
Should Buxton be called up prior to September as I believe he will be, he should pose an immediate base stealing threat at the major league level. Having already flashed the ability and plus speed down on the farm, Buxton should torment pitchers every time he is on base.
Whether it’s only the month of September or a bit more that he plays with the Twins, Buxton should rack up a few stolen bases. Needing to finish fifth in terms of swipes for the Twins should only command around 10 steals, and that’s a mark I could see Buxton getting to with a month and a half of playing time.
Mar 28, 2014; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) dives into third base on a steal against the Boston Red Sox during their game at Hammond Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
4. Aaron Hicks
Last season, Hicks stole four bases for the Twins in just 69 games of work. I may be an Aaron Hicks believer to a fault, but I think 2015 is the year for him. Having now finally progressed from the Double-A level to the Triple-A level in succession, he had the ability to grow through the stages of the farm system.
After his demotion last year, Hicks found himself on the farm. While I can’t attest to what his work ethic looked like, the results were promising. He hit at both the Double and Triple-A level, and should have the confidence to bring that ability back to the majors. Should he hit for the Twins, he will find himself on base able to use his speed plenty.
Expecting at least 12 stolen bases from the Twins starting center fielder in a situation where he could cement himself into the outfield long-term is not unrealistic. 2015 is make or break for Hicks, he’s aware, and I think he’s ready.
Sep 28, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Danny Santana (39) steal second base ahead of the throw to Detroit Tigers secantbaseman Ian Kinsler (3) in the third inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
In 2014, Santana came up and took Twins Territory by storm. A shortstop by trade, he was forced into the starting centerfield role. Now heading back to shortstop, and I don’t believe he will be bothered by competition, Santana should settle into the big leagues even further.
Santana record 20 stolen bases in 101 games a season ago, and was caught on the basepaths only 4 times. I think that number probably stays right around the same point. That’s not necessarily to say I don’t think Santana is a threat, but more so that he will be on base less. His batting average on balls in play in 2014 was over .400, that isn’t sustainable. The regression will serve to give him fewer chances.
I’d be comfortable assuming that Santana can swipe somewhere between 17-22 bases over the course of 2015. Hitting at the top of the lineup, it will be interesting to see how Molitor decides to utilize him around the diamond.
Jun 4, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier (2) reacts to his attempt to steal third base against the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field. Originally called out, a review of the play reversed the call. The Twins win 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
2. Brian Dozier
A year ago, Brian Dozier was one of the select few, and first, members of the 20/20 club. Having hit 23 home runs and stolen 21 bases, Dozier proved to be an asset in nearly every facet of the game in 2014. It is because of those reasons that the Twins are likely going to pay him the big contract he has proven he deserves.
As we look towards 2015, I think Dozier is actually capable of stealing a few more bases. His average was right near his career mark, and his .345 on base percentage was solid. Give me the Molitor effect when accounting for the extra usage on the basepaths.
I’d guess Dozier hits out of the two hole, and he will have plenty of opportunities to get into scoring position batting ahead of Joe Mauer. Dozier was caught seven times last season, and that’s probably a mark he can also improve on. I would wager somewhere around 25 stolen bases is fair for Dozier in 2015.
Sep 17, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins left fielder Jordan Schafer (1) steals second base before Detroit Tigers shortstop Eugenio Suarez (30) can make a tag in the eighth inning at Target Field. The Twins won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Quite possibly, Schafer’s speed will be the biggest asset to the Twins in 2015. Should Hicks play to the ability he was once billed, Schafer will adequately fill in as a fourth outfielder. While not playing every day, he could be called upon at any point to pinch run, and this is where the Twins benefit from him the most.
In 2014, Schafer played in only 41 games for the Twins after being claimed on waivers from the Atlanta Braves. He stole 15 bases across the period of time. The fourth outfielder before him, Sam Fuld, stole 12 bases for the Twins in 53 games. With over 60 games left to round out the season, Schafer has plenty of room to improve on his mark.
Schafer’s usage will depend a lot on how Aaron Hicks plays and the shape that Oswaldo Arcia finds his back to be in. That being said, no matter what his time in the field looks like, he will be the Twins biggest asset on the bases. I’d guess Schafer gets close to doubling his 2014 total and swipes around 30 bags for the Twins.
Next: 2015 Twins: Who Paces The Lineup?
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