Twins Takes: Seven Hot Predictions For 2015

Miguel Sano cracks the 25 man roster before May

Yes, everyone in the country knows that the Twins are unbelievably cautious when it comes to promoting prospects. That being said, I think Sano forces their hand. If he wouldn’t have undergone Tommy John surgery prior to 2014 even starting, the argument could be made that he would have debuted a season ago.

Trevor Plouffe has made massive strides at third base, and has likely held off the eventual takeover from Sano for now. Other roster positions remain for Sano however, and the most likely is designated hitter. Kennys Vargas has been tied to reports of attitude issues during winter ball, and that’s not something that will fly with Molitor. He will need to continue to hit for power to stay in the lineup, and Sano will be breathing down his neck.

Much like Josmil Pinto previously, Sano won’t find his way onto the roster unless he is going to play significantly. Look for Sano to get the call earlier than the Super 2 deadline, and while his defense and average may not be there, the home runs will be a plenty.

Alex Meyer doesn’t debut with the Twins until September

This one isn’t so much a knock on Meyer, as it is a belief in what is there. I am probably higher on Meyer than most, but I think the Twins have a solid recipe for success this season. Expecting a bounce back year for Ricky Nolasco, and a clean bill of health for Tommy Milone, the rotation is pretty full. Kyle Gibson will also be another year better this season.

With all of that in mind, the deck is stacked against Meyer. I’m not at all a fan of a highly regarded prospect toiling away at Triple-A at the age of 25, but circumstances may prevent otherwise. Trevor May will challenge for innings, and if the Twins decide to sign Johan Santana (and he works out, which is a huge if), there will be plenty of mouths to feed.

Further complicate things by Minnesota adding relievers like Blaine Boyer, Tim Stauffer, and J.R. Graham, and it becomes tough to find bullpen work as well. I like Meyer a lot, and I think the concerns about his control are overblown, but we may have to wait. Once he does arrive however, give me the over on a 9.0 K/9 ratio, something the Twins desperately need.

Josmil Pinto leads the Twins in home runs

Last season, Brian Dozier led the Twins with 23 home runs. The number is not only incredibly low, it was posted by a second basemen, and many of those long balls came before the All-Star break. Look for a more traditional power hitter to take charge in 2015, and my money is on Pinto.

I don’t believe Oswaldo Arcia will stay healthy enough to hit 25 or more home runs, Trevor Plouffe will cede time to utility players at some point, and Kennys Vargas is a candidate to face some regression. Compound those things with the fact that Kurt Suzuki will likely not hit to the extent he did last season, offering more opportunity for Pinto, and we have a recipe for logistics.

Give me Pinto for over 25 home runs in 2015, and I think he will be joined by plenty of company. Torii Hunter, Dozier, Plouffe, Vargas, Arcia, and Sano (depending on when he debuts), should all push the envelope towards 20 longballs a piece.

Joe Mauer makes his first All-Star game as a first basemen

When taking a look at the probability of this coming to fruition, we may need to state that the parameters are a bit altered. If he doesn’t make the game, he should be at least deemed worthy. After all, it’s a popularity contest amongst fans, and then the reliance falls upon the manager. At any rate, Joe Mauer should be front and center in the discussion.

As mentioned in the AL Central Hot Takes piece earlier this week, there’s plenty of reasons to expect Mauer to return to form this season. Should some of those things actually take place, Joe and the Twins will be in a great spot. For his All-Star game competition, Mauer will likely face off against Miguel Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, or potentially the likes of Albert Pujols or Brandon Moss. Of those mentioned, Mauer has the ability to go toe to toe with all of them outside of the home runs category.

Experiencing a rebound year at the plate, and a second season of growth in the field, Mauer will once again get back on track to being one of the most effective players in the game. Expect him to get plenty of votes, and be more than deserving of the trip to Cincinnati.

Eddie Rosario is the 2015 Danny Santana

Last season, Santana was called up due to Terry Ryan deciding not to provide extra outfield depth for Ron Gardenhire. The Twins were put in a bad situation early on, and Santana was promoted in May, while also being shifted from his shortstop role. If there’s someone who could follow a similar rise to prominence, it’s Eddie Rosario.

This is not to say I expect Rosario with the Twins in May, I don’t. However, once the infielder is promoted to the major leagues (and I fully expect that to happen in 2015), he should make an immediate impact. In Arizona Fall League action, Rosario batted .330 with 18 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. He’s 22 and his minor league slash line over five seasons is .294/.343/.485. He struggled some in New Britain last season after his suspension, but I think that’s a blip on the radar.

Once promoted to the Twins, give me the over on Rosario batting .275. Expect him to possess pop similar to Santana, and look for him to be a modest base stealer. His arrival is probably tied relatively closely to the health of Oswaldo Arcia.

Byron Buxton is healthy for the entirety of 2015

After experiencing one of the most unlucky seasons any prospect could go through a year ago, 2015 is the year of Buxton. I believe it’s the year of his Twins debut, but it’s also a year in which he experiences the complete opposite of a season ago, a clean bill of health.

The nicks and bumps are behind him thanks in large part to the invite to major league Spring Training. Part of playing baseball at the highest level, is conditioning your body to be able to do so. The learning from Torii Hunter as well as the Twins training staff and manager Paul Molitor will pay dividends for Buxton’s long-term prognosis.

Look for Byron to start out with Doug Mientkiewicz at Double-A Chattanooga and find some time at Triple-A Rochester prior to his call up. I think he gets promoted after the Super 2 deadline, and later than Sano, but he should be at Target Field during 2015. Outside of days off for rest, and the potential for small nicks and bruises, here’s to a 2015 that sees no disabled list stints for the top prospect in baseball.

We are getting down to the final days before the kickoff of Spring Training 2015. Make sure to check back tomorrow for our AL Central Division Standings predictions, and keep tuned in to Puckett’s Pond all season for the latest Twins news.

Next: Five Bold AL Central Predictions

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