Although Minnesota expects Pablo López to miss 8-12 weeks with a Grade 2 strain in his right shoulder, the Twins’ biggest strength remains their pitching, as the pitching staff ranks first across MLB in pitching fWAR with 10.0 and seventh in ERA with 3.47. The most glaring issue Minnesota faces is its lack of offensive production.
Across MLB, the Twins’ offense ranks 19th in OPS (.695) and fWAR (6.5) and 20th in batting average (.241). The offense has improved since its abysmal start to the season, especially with Willi Castro and Trevor Larnach’s recent resurgences, but there is one specific position that could use improvement: first base.
Twins should acquire Orioles first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn at the trade deadline
O'Hearn, 31, is currently having his best start to a season by far, slashing .326/.411/.519 (169 wRC+) with nine home runs while being worth 2.0 fWAR, already the highest mark of his career. His peripherals are superb; he has an xwOBA of .404 (95th percentile), xSLG of .527 (87th percentile), hard-hit % of 52.4 (91st percentile) and LA sweet-spot % of 41.5 (93rd percentile). If slotted into Minnesota’s lineup, O’Hearn would be the team’s best hitter so long as he continues his success.
O’Hearn, a lefty, first earned the call to the big leagues in 2018 with the Kansas City Royals. O’Hearn, set to be a free agent following this season, ended up struggling with Kansas City, hitting .219/.293/.390 in 1071 plate appearances over parts of five seasons before getting DFA’d. The Orioles managed to unlock O'Hearn's potential, as the former Royal has hit .285/.345/.463 in 1071 plate appearances since joining Baltimore in 2023.
The Orioles are among the worst teams in the league, sitting in last place in the AL East with a 25-36 record. With O’Hearn entering free agency this offseason, Baltimore will almost certainly move the first baseman to another team barring an unexpected turnaround. Even though the Twins would have to give up a top prospect or two, acquiring arguably the top offensive rental available at the trade deadline would more than likely be worth it.
O’Hearn should replace Ty France as the Twins' primary first baseman
France has been worth his $1 million contract thus far, hitting .273/.335/.373 and providing four outs above average (93rd percentile). He has been notably clutch, posting a .383/.406/.433 batting line with runners in scoring position this season. Additionally, his xwOBA of .354 (75th percentile) suggests his below-average slash line could improve in the future.
However, France’s overall production has been subpar for a first baseman, a position that typically requires an elite hitter on a good team, given that it is relatively easy to play compared to positions like shortstop, center field and others. Additionally, France ranks below the 50th percentile in average exit velocity (89.4 mph), barrel percentage (8.7%), hard-hit percentage (41.8%), LA sweet-spot percentage (35.3%) and bat speed (70.6 mph).
France should still receive semi-consistent playing time if the Twins acquire O’Hearn. France could occasionally hold down the designated hitter position, start at first base against lefties and when O’Hearn occasionally plays outfield, and pinch-hit in big moments, which he has a good chance to shine in based on his stats with runners in scoring position.