Bailey Ober's noticeably low velocity remains a major concern. His fastball averaged 90.3 mph last year, when he posted a 5.10 ERA in 27 starts, after averaging 91.7 mph the season before.
Many thought that Ober's persistent hip issue was the main reason for his lowered velocity last year. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case. After a delayed start to Grapefruit League action because he didn't feel 100% during a couple of throwing sessions early this spring, Ober has made three starts and has struggled to regain the velocity he once had.
Bailey Ober's average fastball velocity was down even more today vs. the Phillies.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) March 17, 2026
Start #1 — 89.9 mph
Start #2 — 88.8 mph
Start #3 — 88.2 mph
Ober threw 58 pitches today and none of them cracked 90 mph. He also failed to record a strikeout and got just three swing-and-misses.
Through his first three starts, Ober allowed just two runs over 8 2/3 innings. However, he collected just three strikeouts while allowing seven hits, three walks and a hit batter during those three outings.
The concerns regarding Ober are even worse for the Twins since Pablo López will be out for the season after undergoing UCL surgery. Ober is now expected to be Minnesota's No. 2 starter behind Joe Ryan. Barring a last-minute injury, the rest of the starting rotation will consist of Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson and Mick Abel.
Everyone expects Ryan to be the ace of the staff. Bradley, Woods Richardson and Abel are young but have the potential to have great seasons. As for Ober, the veteran could battle through his velocity issues, but they still remain a concern.
Since we don't know if Ober can return to form, the Twins should target this right-handed starter who is surprisingly still available on the free agent market.
Twins should target free agent Lucas Giolitio as Bailey Ober's velocity concerns remain
I thought that the Twins should've targeted Giolito as soon as the news broke that López would miss the entire season. Since Minnesota reportedly offered Framber Valdez a contract before the lefty signed a three-year, $115 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, it doesn't seem too far-fetched an idea that Minnesota could consider signing Giolito, who posted 2.1 bWAR and a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts with the Boston Red Sox last season.
Twins primary owner Tom Pohlad has said he plans for the team to be competitive this year. Adding more pitching depth by signing Giolito would be one way to show fans that he means that. Unfortunately, it feels like a long shot that the Twins will sign Giolito, who would probably prefer to sign with a team with better postseason odds. But if the Twins offer the righty a more attractive deal than other teams, he may just sign with Minnesota. If the Twins sign Giolito and are struggling as the season progresses, they could always trade him to a postseason contender.
