Twins starter Bailey Ober's first spring start concerning despite two perfect innings

Twins' Bailey Ober made 2026 Grapefruit League debut vs. Atlanta Braves Friday

Twins right-handed starting pitcher Bailey Ober's 2026 Grapefruit League debut was delayed until Friday because he didn't feel 100% during a couple of throwing sessions early this spring, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach.

All eyes were on Ober's velocity during the Twins' 4-1 loss against the Atlanta Braves on Friday. The Twins starter had the worst season of his career last year, posting a 5.10 ERA over 27 starts while averaging 90.3 mph on his fastball. In 2024, he posted a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts with an average fastball velocity of 91.7 mph.

Ober dealt with a nagging hip issue last season, which may have impacted his velocity. However, he has worked with a specialist this offseason and has said his hip feels much better. Unfortunately, his fastball velocity was notably low on Friday, as the righty's fastball averaged 89.9 mph and topped out at 91.1 mph.

Bailey Ober's low velocity in 2026 spring debut is major concern for Twins

Ober still had a successful outing against the Braves, hurling two perfect innings with one strikeout. It's important to note that Atlanta's lineup lacked many of its stars, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Austin Riley notably absent. Additionally, three of Ober's outs were hit over 90 mph.

Not to knock on Ober, as the results were good in his outing on Friday, but his notably low velocity is a major concern for the Twins, who desperately need Ober to return to form after Pablo López underwent season-ending UCL surgery last month.

Due to López's unfortunate injury, Ober is slated to be Minnesota's No. 2 starter this season. The rest of the rotation will presumably include Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson and either Zebby Matthews or Mick Abel.

Hopefully Ober just needs more time to warm up this spring, and his velocity improves. If his fastball still sits around 90 mph this season, it'll be much harder for Ober to return to form than if he were to regain the velocity he had in previous seasons.

While it's a major cause for concern if Ober doesn't regain his velocity, we shouldn't write him off just yet. He still had an elite 33.8% chase rate, 5% walk rate and an Offspeed Run Value of 4 last year. Ober may just have to learn to pitch better with slightly lowered velocity, which he certainly can do.