The Minnesota Twins will face a difficult decision in the next 11 days as Joe Ryan is one of the most coveted players ahead of the MLB trade deadline. Ryan, who is 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA despite allowing six homers in Monday’s loss to the Cleveland Guardians, won’t be a free agent until after the 2027 season but teams are already lining up to bolster their rotation and take advantage of a Twins team trying to hang on in a weak American League playoff picture.
Naturally, the Twins should keep a player like Ryan. He’s reliable, has pitched well and appears to be ascending with back-to-back All-Star appearances. But the decision to trade him could come down to his willingness to sign an extension and if the answer is no, the Twins would be wise to move him no matter how close they are in the AL playoff race.
Joe Ryan’s contract demands will heavily influence the Twins’ deadline plans
Ryan’s contract situation is a tricky one. The Twins and Ryan agreed to a one-year, $6.2 million contract to avoid arbitration last spring and that deal features a $13 million mutual option for 2027. While the Twins would gladly accept that option, Ryan’s performance makes him likely to decline it, which could send the Twins back to the negotiation table and potentially an arbitration candidate next offseason.
Of course, another avenue is to sign Ryan to an extension, but that is complicated. While a four-to-five year deal worth about $20 million may be ideal – and close to the four-year, $73.5 million extension the Twins gave Pablo Lopez in 2023 – the cost of starting pitching keeps rising and it wouldn’t be surprising if the price tag approaches $30 million per season by the time he hits free agency.
Based on the Twins’ track record over the past few years, paying up for a four-year, $120 million contract for a pitcher who will be 31 years old when he hits free agency hasn’t been in their playbook. But it could also work in their favor if a salary floor is installed in the new collective bargaining agreement, necessitating the need to spend money somewhere.
But it also has to be a two-way agreement. If last year’s deadline fire sale rubbed Ryan the wrong way, he may not be interested in a deal and the best option may be to deal him sooner than later.
Trading Joe Ryan now could bring the Twins a big haul
If Ryan isn’t interested in a contract extension, his situation could be similar to what happened in 2021 with Jose Berrios. The Twins attempted to work out a deal to keep Berrios in Minnesota but hit the trade market when it became clear they were too far apart on the value of the contract.
The idea was the right one to maximize Berríos’s value by dealing him with a year and a half of team control remaining. As a result, it also appeared that the Twins got a sufficient return with Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin coming from the Toronto Blue Jays.
At the time, Martin was the No. 22 prospect in baseball while Woods Richardson was 87th according to MLB Pipeline. In hindsight, the deal looks rough as Martin’s ceiling may be as a fourth outfielder and Woods Richardson is no longer with the organization and is currently at Triple-A after returning to the Blue Jays earlier this year. The end result could scare fans off when it comes to trading Ryan, but the key was taking two high-profile swings.
While waiting could aid the Twins’ current playoff push, it also has consequences. The Milwaukee Brewers rode out Corbin Burnes’s penultimate year of team control in 2023 and it made sense considering they went on to win the National League Central that year. Still, the return wasn’t as great when they traded Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles the following offseason, acquiring infielder Joey Ortiz (No. 63 prospect before the 2024 season per MLB Pipeline), DL Hall and the No. 34 overall pick in the MLB Draft, which turned out to be first baseman Blake Burke.
Ortiz has become a starter for the Brewers but owns a career .654 OPS in four seasons in the major leagues. Hall is currently a reliever with control problems and Burke is currently at Double-A Biloxi in his age-23 season.
While a similar return would do wonders for the Twins' depth as an organization, they could use another high-profile swing to build around their core. For instance, could the Chicago Cubs offer Matt Shaw (MLB Pipeline’s No. 19 prospect before the 2025 season) and something extra to secure Ryan? Could a team currently going after Tarik Skubal take their package to the Twins and give them a boost to their pitching and infield depth?
Those are the questions that will have to be answered. And if Ryan isn’t interested in sticking around, it may be wise for the Twins to take what they can get and continue to build for the future.
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