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Joe Ryan's nightmarish franchise history just put more pressure on Twins before trade deadline

Ryan's rough outing couldn't have come at a worse time.
Jul 20, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images
Jul 20, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Joe Ryan broke a Twins record in his start vs. the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Monday night. Unfortunately, it's not the type of record a starting pitcher wants to be known for.

Ryan surrendered six home runs, the most in a single start in Twins history, as Cleveland demolished Minnesota 13-4. What made Ryan's rough start even more odd is the fact that the Guardians rank 25th in home runs (101) and 26th in OPS (.689) amont all 30 MLB teams. Ryan's six homers allowed tied with 11 other pitchers for the most home runs surrendered in an outing since 1900.

Last night, Ryan allowed eight earned runs on 10 hits and no walks over four innings. He entered the matchup with a 2.85 ERA and left the game with a 3.38 ERA.

It's a bit odd that Ryan has allowed five or more home runs in a start three separate times in his career, as the two-time All-Star is widely viewed as one of the top starting pitchers in the game. However, when you dig a bit deeper into Ryan's career, it isn't extremely surprising that when he's off, he surrenders plenty of homers.

Ryan has always been a high strikeout arm, but when the ball is put in play, it's typically in the air rather than on the ground. Ryan has a 49.3% career fly-ball rate and a 33.1% ground-ball rate. For reference, the average fly-ball rate typically sits around 35%, while the average ground-ball rate is usually around 44%. Still, Ryan's rough outing last night was a complete surprise given the season he has been having.

Joe Ryan's horrid outing couldn't have come at a worse time as trade deadline looms

The timing of Ryan's uncharacteristically poor start couldn't have been worse. After defeating the Chicago Cubs 5-2 on Friday night, Minnesota held the third AL Wild Card spot. But after dropping the final two games of the three-game set against Chicago and the series opener of the four-game set vs. Cleveland, the Twins fell to three games behind the Boston Red Sox for the third American League Wild Card spot. As for the division standings, Minnesota is five games back of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the American League Central.

After last night's loss, the Twins' postseason odds (via Baseball-Reference) dropped from 25.1% to 17.8%. The Red Sox winning 14 games in a row certainly hasn't helped the Twins' playoff chances, either.

Minnesota has just 12 games remaining before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. The club must perform well over that stretch if it wants to avoid the front office selling key pieces. If the Twins sell, obvious trade candidates include players on expiring contracts such as Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers. Many also view Ryan, who is under team control through 2027, as a top candidate, but trade buzz surrounding his name has died down lately. Still, Minnesota could strongly consider dealing the star pitcher if the Twins' spiral continues.

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