Joe Ryan hasn't seemed like himself since the Twins resumed action after the All-Star break. The right-hander's first start of the second half was just about as bad as it gets, as he surrendered the most home runs (six) in franchise history to the Cleveland Guardians, a team that isn't known for hitting for power.
The Twins scratched Ryan from his next scheduled start against the Athletics on Sunday, instead having him pitch against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on Tuesday night. Ryan didn't pitch nearly as badly as he did against Cleveland last week, but he still didn't look like the Joe Ryan we all saw dominate in the first half; Ryan allowed four earned runs on eight hits and no walks with four strikeouts against Kansas City as the Royals won 4-0 last night.
To add insult to injury, former Twins right-hander Randy Dobnak completely outdueled Ryan last night by hurling seven shutout innings with four strikeouts.
It's easy to brush off Ryan's back-to-back poor starts as a small rough stretch, but it may be an indicator of a much larger problem.
Joe Ryan's second-half stats are alarming
Throughout his career, Ryan has recorded a 3.17 ERA over 516 2/3 innings in the first half of the season. But while he has generally been an elite starter before the All-Star break, he has struggled significantly in the second half.
In 245 innings after the All-Star break during his career, Ryan has recorded a rough 4.96 ERA.
Ryan's strikeout rate is actually a tad higher in the second half, and his walk rate is only 1.2% higher than in the first half. The main reason for Ryan's second-half struggles is that he allows more hits; he has a .214 opponent batting average before the All-Star break, which rises to .244 in the second half. He notably has allowed just eight more homers in the first half than the second half, even though he has thrown more than double the innings before the All-Star break than after.
Ryan's xFIP is actually a solid 3.86 in the second half, while it's 3.74 in the first. But he's had a large enough sample size where it's fair to be concerned about the results.
One would assume that Ryan's dramatic decrease in effectiveness in the second half of the season is fatigue-related. If that's the case, there should be an even greater desire for the front office to acquire starting pitching depth ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
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