Not quite a month ago, I took a preliminary look into how I felt the Opening Day roster might look when the Minnesota Twins open up the 2025 season in St. Louis in less than two weeks.
I didn't title is as such, but in my heart of hearts I still believe it's the second version of projections.
And surprise! Things have changed in the last month. Though frankly, not as much as one could have reasonably expected. This is a Twins team that is constantly dealing with injuries. And while some have popped up this spring, as expected, the team hasn't had to make too many drastic shifts to what's right now a pencil-written Opening Day roster.
Here's a second look:
Starting lineup (9) — out/in: none
- C- Ryan Jeffers
- 1B- Ty France
- 2B- Brooks Lee
- 3B- Royce Lewis
- SS- Carlos Correa
- LF- Trevor Larnach
- CF- Byron Buxton
- RF- Matt Wallner
- DH- Jose Miranda
The lowdown
There are no changes here, and why would there be? This is the team's Prime 9 right now, and assuming all are healthy, they'll go this way against Sonny Gray (?) on Opening Day.
Roster Resource (which is housed at Fangraphs), has the Twins projected for eight of their nine starting hitters to post a wRC+ over 100 (for this exercise, they have Castro starting at DH), and the only outlier is Lee (96).
Additionally, bench players Miranda (110) and Julien (108, but not on our projection) figure to be above-average hitters.
Theoretically, this offense should bang.
Bench (4) — out/in: Austin Martin (out), Mickey Gasper (in) | last man out: Edouard Julien
- C- Christian Vazquez
- IF/OF- Willi Castro
- IF- Mickey Gasper
- OF- Harrison Bader
The lowdown
Adding Bader to this mix really rendered the need for Martin moot. He's still a fine option to be on the big-league team at some point this season, he's just a sub-optimal fit for how the team is currently built (he's really only an outfielder these days, and teams don't really need three capable outfielders on their bench).
The original projection still had Martin on there because somebody needed to be there, and Julien's positional flexibility was unclear (he has played some first base this spring).
But with Gasper hitting everything in sight this spring, I think he sneaks onto the roster in sort of a Willians Astudillo-like role. He's 29; he's the oldest of the bunch but will likely get the first look, in my opinion.
Starting rotation (5) — out/in: none | last man out: Zebby Matthews
- Pablo Lopez
- Joe Ryan
- Bailey Ober
- Simeon Woods Richardson
- Chris Paddack
The lowdown
There's really no need for changes. Paddack is still here, and unless there was to be a drastic shift and he moved to the bullpen to take one of the open(ish) spots out there, Matthews is headed to St. Paul despite his finest — and they were fine, indeed — efforts this spring.
Matthews and David Festa probably run neck-and-neck in this race, with Matthews getting a slight advantage based on how his spring has gone. The Twins are in good shape here.
Bullpen (8): — out/in: Eiberson Castellano (out), Michael Tonkin, (out), Louis Varland (in), Anthony Misiewicz (in) | last man out: Kody Funderburk
- Anthony Misiewicz
- Louis Varland
- Danny Coulombe
- Jorge Alcala
- Brock Stewart
- Cole Sands
- Griffin Jax
- Jhoan Duran
The lowdown
If feels pretty likely that we'll see a "Twins returned Rule 5 pick Castellano to the Phillies" note run across the wire in the days to come, but the team could still make an effort to keep him via a trade.
But in six innings, Castellano has nine strikeouts, eight walks and has allowed six earned runs (two home runs). Thirteen of the 31 batters he's faced have reached base (a relative .419 on-base percentage) and he's only allowed four hits (a .182 batting average against).
If the Twins were the White Sox, they could leave with the risk of Castellano in their bullpen. That is not the case.
Instead, it feels like the Twins have moved onto the idea of Varland as a bit of a swingman/fireman hybrid where he can come into the game with runners on in the fifth and get Rocco Baldelli and Co. to the seventh.
An injury to Tonkin makes his already tenuous case less of an issue, and Topa being hurt too means the Twins likely have one more spot.
Conventional wisdom would suggest Funderburk makes the team; he's already on the 40-man roster and would not require an added move to make room like Misiewicz does.
But the Twins will likely have a 40-man spot to play with, assuming they put Matt Canterino on the 60-day injured list before the season begins. The added intrigue of another lefty that made Funderburk the likely choice might make a seemingly less-likely choice (Misiewicz) the pick here.
If it wasn't going to be Funderburk, Scott Blewett would make sense. He was more than capable down the stretch last season, and hasn't done anything to, erm, blow it with his results this spring.
And maybe he's the choice here. I think it's a three-man battle for one spot, and usually the one on the 40-man gets the advantage. But if the Twins figure to have a 40-man spot to play around with — and Funderburk has options, so he can be safely stashed at St. Paul — I sort of expect them to use it (and don't really see a path to them doing it on offense).