Better or Worse in 2025: Twins right-hander Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran burst onto the scene in 2022 throwing 67.2 innings and recording 89 strikeouts in that time.

He was also quite effective in 2023 before having what most are seeing as a down year in 2024. In 2024, he recorded 23 saves and a 3.64 ERA while striking out 66 over 54.1 innings.

So which Duran will we get in 2025? An elite reliever who is borderline unhittable or the 2024 version, which by all metrics is still an above-average major league reliever.

There has been a lot of talk about Duran's velocity being down this past season and into Spring Training. Is this because of an underlying problem, or is it because he can't throw as hard as he once could?

Regardless of the reason, Duran and the Twins are expecting and hoping to be a key cog in the Twins bullpen, which is projected to be the best bullpen in baseball this coming year.

Fangraphs projects Duran to have 22 saves and record 76 strikeouts over 61 innings pitched. For you old-school readers, it projects Duran to have a 2.36 ERA, which would be an improvement on his 2024 numbers and be closer to his 2023 output.

Duran is a high-strikeout pitcher who throws nearly 100 miles per hour, so he is one of Rocco Baldelli's most trusted arms in high-leverage situations for the Twins, along with Griffin Jax. While Duran may no longer be throwing 104 or 105 miles per hour, his fastball is still very good and very well might be his third-best pitch behind his 90-plus mph splinker (split finger/sinker), and his mid-80s curveball.

There are both optimistic reasons and reasons to approach Duran's coming year with skepticism.

The optimism is that he, along with Jax, is projected to be a top 15 reliever in baseball, even if he is no longer throwing harder than Aroldis Chapman once was. His 2.85 FIP from 2024 is another thing to consider and shows that he was better than you may think he was. The skepticism one might approach things with is that he has not performed quite as well recently as he did when he was first called up.

One thing to remember is that even in a "down year," Duran was still an above-average reliever, recording a 114 ERA+ and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, which are both pretty solid numbers overall.

It will be exciting to see how Rocco Baldelli will uses Duran out of the bullpen. Like a lot of teams, Duran is one of a few relievers that will be used in the higher leverage situations, and will likely not be used in a traditional closer role, like Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan once were. Expect to see Duran and his super awesome entrance quite a bit at Target Field this year.

Hopefully Duran can live up to expectations and be a main reason the bullpen lives up to the high expectations that folks have for them as well.