The Minnesota Twins have spent another October watching the postseason from home and the biggest question is why. The Twins have missed the playoffs in five of the past six seasons and while many are rightfully upset about the team’s payroll slashing, there are also several fundamental mistakes that have prevented them from being successful.
Those mistakes will be front and center during this year’s World Series. The Milwaukee Brewers punched their ticket to the Fall Classic after completing a sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night and they will face either the Tampa Bay Rays or Cleveland Guardians in what will be a showdown between small-market teams.
While this year’s matchup could create a loophole for the Pohlad family to avoid dropping a large amount of money to improve the team, it also reflects poorly on their decisions that have kept them from competing over the past few years.
The Brewers, Rays and Guardians are showing the Twins how to build a winner
As you may have guessed, the Brewers, Guardians and Rays are not among MLB’s biggest spenders. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Brewers’ year-end salary ranked 23rd at $99.3 million and defeated the Dodgers’ No. 1 roster at $366.0 million. The American League finalists were also budget-conscious as the Rays ranked 20th with a year-end payroll of $103.1 million and the Guardians ranked 25th at $91.0 million.
All three of the remaining teams had a lower year-end payroll than the Twins, who ranked 17th with a figure of $123.9 million and while many, including owner and chairman Tom Pohlad, believe that adding to that number could lead to a championship, the other three teams show what they have done wrong.
The first is maximizing the value of players on the roster. The Rays, Guardians and Brewers have traded players before they get to free agency to add to their organization and it’s paid off in a big way. The Brewers most notably did this in a February 2024 trade featuring Corbin Burnes that brought back left-hander DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz.
The Rays also have done this with their trade of Triple-A right-hander Tobias Myers, who was traded to Cleveland as he was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in 2021, and brought back star third baseman Junior Caminero in return. While the Guardians whiffed on Myers, they made other shrewd deals that netted them Craig Yoho, Patrick Bailey, Foster Griffin and Kyle Manzardo.
These trades are a double-edged sword as they usually involve popular players. But it brings back pieces that ensure a larger championship window. That leaves player development as the final phase of the three contenders and each team has a homegrown star to lean on such as Jose Ramirez, Jacob Misiorowski or Caminero.
The Twins’ biggest problems go beyond their payroll
Turning the attention back to the Twins, it’s easy to see where they have come up short. This year’s trade deadline was one opportunity to shift the narrative. But instead of trading players that could bring back a big return such as Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan, the Twins went the opposite direction, adding A.J. Minter, Jeff Hoffman and Dean Kremer.
Even when they tried to trade Trevor Larnach to the Houston Astros before owner Jim Crane vetoed it, they were seeking 29-year-old Bryan Abreu, a pitcher who posted his highest ERA (3.73) and lowest WAR (1.0) since his rookie season in 2021.
The other key issue is the Twins’ player development. While top prospects such as Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner thrive initially when reaching the major leagues, those players have hit a wall when pitchers adjust to them. The problem can be traced back to Miguel Sano’s downfall in the early 2020s and can still be seen in a group of post-hype hitters that haven’t lived up to their prospect status.
This leaves the Twins in a tricky spot this offseason. After failing to trade Jeffers at the deadline, there’s a good chance he’ll leave in free agency. Ryan has a year of team control remaining, but trading him now could get a pair of MLB-ready players in return. Several top prospects including Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper made their debuts this season, but the key will be to make sure they don’t regress entering their first full season in the bigs.
Of course, fans may cheer for a salary floor to hold the Pohlads accountable for what happens to the Twins next. But the Rays, Guardians and Brewers show that paying top dollar may not be necessary to build a contender and Minnesota would be wise to follow their blueprint.
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