The Minnesota Twins are watching the postseason from their couch for the fifth time in the past six years, but it doesn’t mean that the playoffs have no implications for them.
The potential for a World Series between two small-market teams is becoming closer to reality as the Los Angeles Dodgers are down 3-0 to the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and with the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians battling for the American League Pennant, there’s a good chance that the usual big-market suspects won’t be involved in this year’s Fall Classic.
This feels like good news, knowing that if the Rays, Brewers or Guardians can make the World Series, the Twins have a chance to get there someday. But with the looming labor situation in Major League Baseball, it could be a disastrous outcome that affects their ability to compete for a championship.
A small-market World Series could undermine the Twins efforts to hold ownership accountable
As it stands right now, there’s no concrete answer to when the Twins will play their next game. The Twins are currently scheduled to open the 2027 season by traveling to visit the Kansas City Royals, but negotiations on a collective bargaining agreement are likely to trigger a lockout, which could push back the start of next year.
The chances of that happening seem to be growing greater by the day. MLB’s owners would like to install a salary cap to regulate big-spending teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, but players don’t want to give up their earning potential or be locked into shorter-term limits. But more relevant to the Twins is the potential for a salary cap floor.
Payroll has been a touchy subject for Twins fans since the team slashed payroll by roughly $30-to-$35 million after reaching the American League Divisional Series in the 2023 playoffs. The slashing continued when the Twins traded 11 players off their 40-man roster ahead of the 2025 trade deadline and sat at an estimated $111 million last season according to FanGraphs.
When considering the Twins dropped from 19th to 23rd in payroll after the cuts, it doesn’t seem that bad. But according to Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman, the team’s spending compared to the rest of the league was 76 to 77 percent of the Major League average, which is roughly the same level of spending the Twins had in the final years of the Metrodome before moving into Target Field in 2010.
Twins owner and chairman Tom Pohlad acknowledged that the current level of spending won’t help the team compete for a championship, but he also declined to provide an exact number. That decision may trigger some of the scars that fans have from their history with the Pohlad family, but a floor, proposed by MLB to be at $171.2 million, could give a definitive figure that sets expectations moving forward.
Regulating frugal owners like the Pohlads could be a big win for Twins fans in the next CBA – especially since the Twins are never likely to approach the proposed ceiling of $245.3 million while the Pohlads own the team. But that’s where the results of this postseason could hurt their cause.
Twins could pay the price for a small-market World Series
FanGraphs estimates that the Dodgers have the largest payroll in baseball at $412 million and it’s a big reason why they’ve won back-to-back World Series. One of the biggest pieces of evidence of an unfair advantage has been Kyler Tucker, who is making $33 million this season but was hitting eighth at one point this postseason.
But while baseball points to this as something small markets can’t overcome, the other three teams are showing that it is possible. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Tampa Bay’s year-end payroll of $103.1 million ranked 20th in MLB. Milwaukee’s year-end payroll of $99.3 million ranked 23rd and the Guardians figure of $91.0 million ranked 25th, giving small markets their time in the spotlight.
The likely outcome of having two of those teams battle could also be used as an argument by the players that the current financial landscape is working. While there are chances of a compromise, it likely wouldn’t require the Twins to spend roughly $60.2 million to get to the floor next winter and leave Minnesota in the same spot they were stuck in before.
Twins fans would rather discuss potential free agent or trade targets than the principles of the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. But it’s something that could come up in the likely event a small market team holds up the commissioner’s trophy in a few weeks. It’s something that fans can’t control, but have to hope it doesn’t have a detrimental effect on their chances to do the same.
Add us as a preferred source on Google