The Minnesota Twins' playoff hopes are dwindling by the gameand Zebby Matthews didn’t help the cause in Wednesday’s loss to the Detroit Tigers. Lasting just 2.1 innings, Matthews allowed two hits, walked four batters and allowed five earned runs, including a two-run homer to Colt Keith in the first inning, and provided the latest death blow to any chance of playing in October.
But at 26 years old, the Twins have to figure out Matthews’s future. A player that was once called “a future star” by former Minnesota reliever Danny Coulombe, Matthews has shown flashes during his three years in the majors. But with a 15-20 record and a 5.45 ERA in his first three seasons may signal a future in the bullpen.
While that doesn’t sound great, the Twins could put a plan into action next season and it could lead Matthews down the same path that helped Louis Varland become one of the best relievers in baseball.
The Twins may have another Louis Varland right in front of them
Twins fans have missed Varland from the moment he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays during last year’s fire sale. While he’s gone on to become an All-Star closer, Varland began his career as a starter, posting a 5-11 record and a 5.51 ERA in 38 games (22 starts) over his first three seasons. The overall numbers weren’t good, but Varland had some things going for him including a fastball that averaged 96.1 mph and 7.0 feet of extension during the 2024 season, according to Baseball Savant.
Those metrics shined through during the Twins’ playoff run in 2023 when Varland posted a 1.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts and one walk over seven relief appearances to end the regular season and after going 0-6 with a 7.61 ERA over 16 appearances (seven starts) during the 2024 season, the Twins turned him into a full-time reliever for the 2025 season.
The move has changed Varland’s career as he’s been nearly unhittable since joining the bullpen. In 139 games over the past two seasons, Varland has posted a 2.13 ERA, struck out 162 batters and walked 43 batters over 144.0 regular-season innings. He also shined during the Blue Jays' run in the postseason last year with a 3.94 ERA, 17 strikeouts and three walks over 15 appearances, leading Kevin Gausman to declare his arrival “one of the best trades we’ve ever made.”
Of course, this stings back in Minnesota. The Twins have tried to build a bullpen with castoffs and duct tape throughout the 2026 campaign and while some have stepped up, such as Andrew Morris, they could use more reinforcements and Matthews might have the stuff to help the cause.
Comparing the two pitchers over the first three years of their careers, you can see some similarities. While Matthews’s ERA has allowed more homers and he has a lower ground-ball rate, a lot of their metrics have been the same.
Louis Varland (2022-24) | Zebby Matthews (2024-26) | |
|---|---|---|
Appearances/Starts | 38/22 | 46/46 |
Record | 5-11 | 15-20 |
ERA | 5.51 | 5.45 |
Innings Pitched | 143.2 | 236.1 |
WHIP | 1.38 | 1.40 |
K% | 22.5% | 22.3% |
BB% | 6.2% | 7.0% |
HR% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
GB% | 42.4% | 38.5% |
Average Exit Velocity | 89.9 mph | 89.8 mph |
Those comparisons are even more valid when comparing Varland’s 2024 season to the one Matthews is having in 2026 and could show there’s something to be unlocked in Matthews’s performance.
Louis Varland (2024) | Zebby Matthews (2026) | |
|---|---|---|
Fastball Velocity | 96.1 mph | 95.2 mph |
Average Exit Velocity | 90.6 mph | 90.6 mph |
Chase Rate | 23.6% | 27.5% |
Whiff Rate | 23.2% | 21.9% |
K% | 20.6% | 19.8% |
BB% | 6.7% | 7.4% |
HR% | 5.0% | 4.6% |
GB% | 42.0% | 42.8% |
Moving Zebby Matthews to the bullpen could be a big payoff for the Twins in 2027
In a perfect world, the Twins would love for Matthews to earn a rotation spot next season. Minnesota’s starting rotation ranks 25th with a 4.58 ERA and a 5.26 ERA in the second half of the season and big changes could be on the way – especially if the Twins trade Joe Ryan, and Mick Abel, David Festa or Pablo Lopez experience a setback in their season-ending injuries.
But it’s also easier for the Twins to replace Matthews in the rotation. Signing a high-quality bullpen arm could sit somewhere around $6 to $12 million based on last year’s free agent class, but the position is extremely volatile in its production from year to year. Adding a veteran in free agency or making a trade, such as the one to acquire Dean Kremer at this year’s deadline, is also an option that could fill out the rotation and allow Matthews to fill the vacancy in the bullpen at a cheaper price.
Comparing any Twins pitcher to Varland is a high bar considering what he did in Toronto. It also would be hard to move Matthews to the bullpen just two starts after he threw a gem against the Chicago White Sox, allowing one earned run on five hits with five strikeouts on Aug. 30.
Even with those flashes, however, Matthews’s run as a starter has produced more starts like the one he had in Detroit on Wednesday. Even if the Twins forge ahead with Matthews in their plans, moving him to the bullpen is something they should keep in mind and a move to potentially replace the power arm they traded away at last year’s deadline.
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