The 2025 projected standings at Fangraphs has 14 of the 15 teams this season winning between 75 and 86 games — none higher and only one lower.
You can probably guess which one is lower.
The Twins fall near the top of that list, with a projection of 83 wins and a first-place finish in the American League Central by two games over the Detroit Tigers.
In the AL, the following teams are projected for at least 83 wins:
- Yankees: 86-76
- Red Sox: 85-77
- Mariners: 85-77
- Rangers: 84-78
- Twins/Blue Jays/Orioles/Astros: 83-79
...that's more than half the teams in the American League!
But what's important to note is that all of these teams have flaws; not necessarily fatal flaws, but falls all the same.
The Yankees are paper-thin in the rotation after losing Gerrit Cole for the season. The Red Sox look like they'll be solid, but they're no juggernaut. Seattle hasn't been able to find offense for long enough to wonder if it's any closer to happening this season.
Texas is good, but is opening with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Leiter, Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom and Kumar Rocker. That's not something that has to be feared. The Blue Jays are in purgatory while waiting to see if they can sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Orioles have an incredible young offense, but very little starting pitching to speak of.
And then there's the Astros, and these are not the Astros of yesteryear.
Yordan Alvarez is still one of the greatest hitters in MLB today. Jose Altuve is still an exceptional player as he nears 35, but they're trying to shoehorn him into left field defensively. It was ugly at times down in Florida.
If Isaac Paredes takes to the Crawford Boxes like many think he will, and the Astros can get pitching from more than just Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, they're going to be dangerous.
But not so much so that the Twins have to fear them — or anyone else, for that matter.
And maybe this is where the team's lack of spending this offseason becomes especially troubling. Adding one more established big-league talent someplace on the roster would have been helpful, although perhaps not necessarily crucial.
Every team can use more starting pitching, but outside of Jack Flaherty returning to Detroit, there weren't a ton of deals handed out in a way that would have made sense to the Twins as fits.
The Twins are also a little light on right-handed power, but where is this player going to play?
True enough, the outfield is an option. However, the infield is crowded (when healthy-ish), and adding an outfielder on a medium-term deal likely gives the team fewer opportunities for Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and, further down the line, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.
To be sure, these are good problems to have — but they're ones that teams also don't necessarily chase if they don't need to.
The Twins' depth really shines here, too.
With Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis sidelined to start the season, the Twins still have a starting lineup where every projected hitter is expected to be above league-average (100 or higher wRC+) at Roster Resource, at least depending on how much Harrison Bader plays in left field, as he is on Opening Day.
But even still, projections are pretty high on Edouard Julien and Mickey Gasper as key reserves, too (both projected to be above-average in this regard).
The rotation is as deep as it has been in a while.
Many pundits prefer the Tigers' rotation, and that's entirely understandable. Any rotation anchored by the defending Cy Young winner is going to have the leg up in a comparison. Jack Flaherty is back for another tour of duty — imagine how things might have been different if Detroit hadn't traded him last season — and the back end of the rotation is less table, but more intriguing with Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe.
That youth is mitigated by veterans Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb, who are also options later on, and an intriguing young righty named Keider Montero who had some nice moments at times last season.
But for what it's worth, Fangraphs likes the Twins' rotation more.
It has Skubal leading the way with 5.6 projected fWAR, but the next three best pitchers in the comparison between the two are Pablo Lopez (3.5), Joe Ryan (2.9) and Bailey Ober (2.4, tied with Flaherty).
Fangraphs also has the four-pack of Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews soaking up something like 350 innings and being worth 4.5 fWAR. That's pretty good for back-end starting pitching, and if we're honest, it's splitting hairs here as Fangraphs has both teams projected for 13.4 fWAR with the Twins ranked ahead of Detroit either by percentage points or writer's choice.
The bullpen is where things get really spicy, with the Twins projected for 5.1 fWAR — tops in MLB and nearly a full win above Nos. 2-3 Baltimore and Philadelphia (both 4.2).
The Twins boast high-end quantity and quality in the bullpen, with two of the best relievers in the AL in Duran and Griffin Jax, one of the most underrated up-and-coming relievers in Cole Sands, a steady left-hander in Danny Coulombe and Jorge Alcala and Louis Varland, both of whom have had promising stretches as relievers in recent memory.
Beyond that, anything the Twins get from Justin Topa and Brock Stewart — both of whom have been good, to even at times great, in recent seasons — will also be a factor in why the team has the deepest and best bullpen in baseball.
So we've established a solid offense, a good starting staff and an elite bullpen.
What's the issue here?
It comes down to health, but even if the Twins remain reasonably healthy, they should be right in the thick of it in the American League race.
Yes, American League. Not just the Central.
This team is going to win 91 games. Book it.