The word is out on the Minnesota Twins bullpen. And that word is something along the lines of, "It's quite possibly the best bullpen in the league."
Fangraphs, a respected baseball analytics website to which you should subscribe if able, has taken notice of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, "and the rest," as they used to say about the Professor and Mary Ann on "Gilligan's Island. Duran, Jax and Sands in 2024 gave the Twins three of the most valuable 32 relievers by fWAR.
And the rest of the bullpen slots, analyst Eric Longenhagen notes, are filled in by a group of "elevated middle relief types." It sounds like a backhanded compliment, but elevated middle-relief types don't grow on trees, as any scout would tell you.
In a post dated Monday, Longenhagen spent about 26,000 words (including the data in tables) going over all of the bullpens in Major League Baseball. He put the Twins at the top, "in a tier on their own, nearly a full win above the next highest-projected bullpen."
Was it not obvious from the 82 victories and fourth-place finish in the AL Central in 2024? Yeah, smarty. Well, just imagine how depressing the Twins season would have been if the bullpen wasn't doing its job, either.
The Twins bullpen is very good, if not better than very good, and yet, Longenhagen also spent nearly 200 words in the introduction reminding us how fleeting bullpen results can he, how the difference between one bullpen and another is oh-so marginal, even when comparing those at the top to those in the middle.
Still, given what we know about the fragile nature of pitching in general and bullpens specifically, it's better to be good.
The Cleveland Guardians were said to have the best bullpen in '24, with Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase in the top five individually, and Hunter Gaddis ranking 16th. And yet, Fangraphs projects them seventh overall this season.
The next highest AL Central team is the Kansas City Royals at 14th, followed by the Detroit Tigers at 18th. Both of those rankings seem light but, remember, the difference among bullpens can be thinner than a tenth of fWAR.
No matter: the Twins seem to have distinguished themselves as a cut above.
Longenhagen does an accurate job of describing each reliever's current pros and cons, identifying Jax as perhaps the best bullpen arm in the majors. Jax is "this decade's Liam Hendriks, a relatively generic backend starter prospect whose stuff exploded when he was moved to the bullpen." (You hear that, Lou Varland?)
Regarding Jax: Hey, the Twins are making progress because they've at least kept the new Liam Hendriks for the good part of his career.
Longenhagen also is a clear advocate for Duran, marveling at his 100 mph-plus speed, the depth of his 86 mph breaker and the otherworldly-ness of his splinker, the precursor to what Paul Skenes throws.
Twins Twitter would jump in and say that Duran's fastball doesn't get batters out like it used to, and its reduced ability to miss bats is what made Duran vulnerable in 2024. A fastball with better shape, action and location was what separated Duran in 2022 and 2023 from the rest of the pack of good relief pitchers. He was where scouts see Jax now.
Can Duran get that back? Because then you'd be talking something amazing at the back of the bullpen.
Longenhagen calls Sands a mid-game firefighter, capable of going more than three outs. He rightfully pairs Varland to Sands, indicating that Varland could be a multi-inning option going forward. Varland, if his knuckle curve continues to be how it was in the spring, and if he can improve his four-seam command, could make a Sands-type leap to high leverage.
Fangraphs also describes Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala as options, as they currently slot, who have better stuff than their counterparts on other teams. The depth is deep. Stewart and Justin Topa, in particular, could provide an amazing level of depth if they could stay on the field. As Twins fans are well aware.
As for left-handers, his name is Danny Coulombe. It's a common complaint from certain Twins observers (media and fan alike) that they don't have enough lefties — not in the rotation or in relief.
Fangraphs kinda sees that too, although they also note that teams can pitch around such deficiencies if they have some reverse-splits righties. Coulombe fixes the handedness thing, and if anything happens to him, Anthony Misiewicz will be standing by at Triple-A St. Paul. But seriously, while the Twins lack depth, Coulombe ought to be much better than the cadre of southpaws in the bullpen a year ago.
So there it is, the Twins have won the Preseason World Series of Bullpens. Analysts often tout the pen's importance come the postseason, so it's obviously just a matter of the Twins other departments coming through, because the bullpen is ready for its close-up.