The Minnesota Twins have had their share of moves that haven’t panned out in recent years and that includes the 2022 trade for Tyler Mahle. Acquired to give the starting rotation a boost ahead of the trade deadline, shoulder problems and poor performance marred his time in Minnesota and he appeared to be on the ropes before he was traded from the San Francisco Giants to the Atlanta Braves this season.
The move from the San Francisco Giants did wonders for Mahle, who went 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA in nine starts with Atlanta to close out the regular season. He continued that performance in the postseason, going 0-1 with a 1.35 ERA and put an exclamation point by allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits and a walk with four strikeouts over 6.1 innings in the Braves’ season-ending 4-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.
If it weren’t for Walt Weiss overmanaging his bullpen and pulling Mahle after 85 pitches, he could have had an even bigger impact. But regardless, Mahle will have a chance to get paid this offseason and reclaim his career after what happened with the Twins.
Tyler Mahle’s finish to 2026 set him up for a strong free agency
Mahle was part of one of the most aggressive trade deadlines the Twins had under former president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey. A 27-year-old from the Cincinnati Reds, Mahle seemed to be ascending when he came to Minnesota, but made just four starts with a 1-1 record and 4.41 ERA before he suffered right shoulder issues.
The following year, Mahle showed improvement with a 1-2 record and 3.16 ERA. But he made just five starts around injuries before undergoing Tommy John surgery and signing a two-year, $22 million contract with the Texas Rangers after the 2023 season.
Since then, Mahle’s career has been filled with highs and lows. He made just three starts for the Rangers in 2024 as he rehabbed from surgery and went 6-4 with a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts for the Rangers in 2025. That performance helped him land a one-year, $10 million contract with the Giants. But like many moves general manager Buster Posey made, it backfired as he went 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts.
Still, there was a silver lining in Mahle’s performance. His 149.0 innings pitched were the most he’s had in a season since tossing 120.2 innings between the Twins and Reds during the 2022 season. He also regained life and control on his fastball, which helped him post a 7.5 percent walk rate and a 44.4 percent ground ball rate according to Baseball Savant.
Those numbers are probably why Atlanta targeted him at the trade deadline and could help him get paid as he hits the market again this winter.
Tyler Mahle might have a team take the same gamble the Twins did
The Twins are short on pitching depth and could use a veteran arm in the rotation. But Mahle’s previous stay in Minnesota may prevent that from happening. A lockout could also wind up delaying the right-hander’s decision on a new home, but it could also benefit him when the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is hammered out.
One of the key sticking points of the next CBA is a salary cap, but there’s also discussion about a salary floor. If a floor is instituted, teams like the Twins will have to spend heavily to get there and it creates a situation where Mahle could be in high demand as a veteran who just got done having a strong run in the postseason.
An example is what happened to the Athletics before the 2025 season where they had to significantly increase their payroll to collect their revenue-sharing allotment. As a result, their payroll jumped from $63.4 million in 2024 to roughly $105 million in 2025 including a three-year, $67 million contract to Luis Severino.
Of course, that spending hasn’t translated into more wins for the Athletics. But Mahle may not care as a 32-year-old trying to get one last big contract. With his postseason performance in his back pocket, it could be enough for a team to fall in love with him like the Twins did once upon a time and get a lot of money to have that team take the gamble.
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