We've entered the home stretch of the MLB season, and Minnesota Twins fans are already starting to count down the team's magic number toward a playoff berth.
It's starting to feel like a matter of how the Twins are going to make the playoffs rather that if they'll punch a ticket. With fewer than 40 games left, Minnesota is just 2.5 games behind Cleveland for first place in the AL Central and are closing in on clinching a Wild Card spot.
There's still a lot of season left, but without taking their eye off the ball now the Twins need to start thinking about what things might look like in October. Specifically, what will the playoff rotation look like when the postseason arrives?
Joe Ryan is on the IL but it's unclear when he's going to return. He suffered a Grade 2 teres strain at the beginning of August but the prognosis could mean he misses "months" of action. If that's the case, his season is likely over and the Twins will have to find a way to replace him in October.
Who will replace Joe Ryan in the Twins' playoff pitching rotation?
Obviously, the most ideal outcome is that Ryan returns in time to be available for the postseason. Even if that's the case, we don't know which version of him the team will get and it the best course forward might be to simply shut him down and push his chips to next season.
The likliest outcome is starting to look like Ryan will need to be replaced in the playoff rotation, which complicates things after Minnesota gets through games featuring Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.
Lopez is a true wild card, as he's channeled his inner-Brad Radke this season by being good for a first inning home run before settling into a groove. Ober, on the other hand, has looked like a dark horse Cy Young candidate whenever he's not facing the Royals. He's posted a 3.49 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP so far this year, numbers that are even lower when taking out his poor performances against Kansas City.
Those two spots in the rotation are pretty much shored up, but what happens after is a little murkier.
Minnesota has three options when it comes to who pitches Game 3 of a playoff series:
- Simeon Woods Richardson
- David Festa
- Zebby Matthews
Of those guys, Woods Richardson feels like the safest bet and he's outright earned the opportunity to pitch a playoff game. His turnaround this season has been one of the best storylines to follow, and while he's not perfect we've seen him step up in big spots this year.
Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|
Game 1 | Pablo Lopez |
Game 2 | Bailey Ober |
Game 3 | Simeon Woods Richardson |
Figuring out a fourth starter is a little trickier.
The Twins could run things back to the top and start Lopez in Game 4, or risk it and lean on Festa while having the bullpen ready to take things over. Right now Matthews is still too raw to be trusted in a playoff start, but could find his way into the mix as part of a bullpen rotation in a situation where Festa starts but Rocco Baldelli takes him out early.
MInnesota first needs to get to the postseason for any of this to be relevant, but if they somehow aren't playing in October then they have much bigger problems to deal with. The Twins' curse seems to be never having reliable pitching when it counts, and that's going to be tested in a big way this year given how unproven -- yet talented -- the staff they'll have is.
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