Twins Magic Number: Paving Minnesota's possible path to the playoffs (Updated)

After a long summer of battling things out, the Minnesota Twins entire season comes down to the final few weeks. Despite an embarassingly sluggish start, the Twins found their groove in ways they didn't last year to not only bounce back into the playoff race but enter the home stretch of the season just a few games out of first place in the AL Central.

Not only that, but the Twins could end up securing a first round bye when all is said and done, and are doing this all with a patchwork roster being held together by duct tape.

If Minnesota manages to get back to October baseball, anything can happen. Last year we saw the team finally snap a 19-year postseason losing streak, and the championship window is firmly open now and over the next few years.

Every shot the Twins get matters, and this year they're zeroing in on yet another playoff berth that would continue to raise the bar of success despite all the shortcomings.

What is a Magic Number?

A magic number is based on close a team is to clinching a playoff berth versus how many games are left in the season.

• Formula: Magic Number = Total Games + 1 - (Team Wins - Closest Rival Losses)

This is used to determine where exactly each playoff race is at any given time down the stretch of the season. Some Twins fans might remeber the Star Tribune publishing magic numbers on the front page of the sports section during those classic 2000s runs, and there's still a bit of -- magic -- about watching the number dwindle.

As the number of games in a season shrinks, magic numbers begin to carry a life-and-death weight. They'll become critical in the final weeks of the season, as a team's magic number will have an impact on in-game decisions while essentially making certain matchups de facto playoff games.

This could be as obvious as two division rivals meeting in a four-game series, or add unexpected improtance to a random mid-week game against an otherwise terrible team that's out of the race. Every inch of real estate in the standings matter this time of year, and magic numbers are the Matrix code for reading the chaos.

Current Magic Number for Minnesota Twins (Updated September 19th)

There are two ways for the Twins to make the postseason this year, both of which are looking pretty good as we enter the home stretch of the season.

Winning the AL Central for a second consecutive year is obviously the most ideal way to punch a ticket. That fractures off into another potential thing to keep an eye on which is Minnesota finishing with the best record in the American League. The top two division winners get a first round, with the third being forced to play in the Wild Card as the No. 3 seed.

If the Twins can finish in the Top 2, it would mean not only resting until the ALDS but hosting that series as well. Given how banged up the team has been lately, that would be a huge buffer to take advantage of.

Clinching a Wild Card berth is the other option.

Minnesota reached the postseason as that aformentioned third division winner, which came with homefield advantage. That wouldn't be the case if the Twins made it as a Wild Card team this year, although at the very least their ticket would be punched and anything could happen.

Just ask the Texas Rangers how that went last season.

Historical Context

Not every magic number countdown lines up with an actual playoff berth. Twins fans know this all too well thanks to the handful of 163rd games the team has needed to play in.

Some have gone well, like the famous Game 163 against the Tigers back in 2009, which came a year after the Twins lost the AL Central to the White Sox in a tiebreaker game.

Those were seasons where fans were glued to the magic number countdown, and it came at the end of a run where such a thing was commonplace in Twins Territory for most of the decade. Maybe it was the joy of not having been able to scoreboard watch like that since the days of Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek, or that there wasn't social media to help keep track, but there will always be something special about those 2000s teams and counting down the magic number.

Key Games to Watch

There's still a lot of distance left to run, but the Twins have a few huge games upcoming that could help shrink their magic number.

Perhaps no series will be bigger than the one in September against Cleveland. Depending on how things go, that could end up deciding who wins the AL Central, especially if things stay the way they are now.

By then the Twins will have dispatched the Royals in two series and be in a position to overtake the Guardians in a four game series. That's easier said than done, but if all goes well it will at least put Minnesota in prime position to punch a postseason ticket, if not wear the division crown again.

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