Prospects the Twins can't afford to not protect from the Rule 5 Draft this year

With the offseason in full swing, most attention is focused on the free agent market and what trades we might see start to come into focus as the Winter Meetings near. Some important decisions need to be made below that level first, though, as teams must figure out which eligible prospects to protect from the Rule 5 Draft.

Tuesday is the deadline for protecting players, which means adding them to the 40-man roster for the upcoming season. For a team like the Twins, that could be a two-birds-with-one-stone move, as a frugal franchise not looking to spend much in free agency -- if anything at all -- will be heavily reliant on in-house talent to fill roster gaps.

Most of the minor league talent we'll see first out of the gate are guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez, who are already on the 40-man roster. Tuesday will be about which of the guys just below that level need to be held onto and who the team is okay with potentially losing.

There seems to be three stone cold locks the Twins need to add to the 40-man roster and protect from the Rule 5 Draft, and a handful of other guys who should be under consideration as well.

Prospects the Twins must protect from the Rule 5 Draft this year

Marco Raya, SP

There's a less-than-zero chance than Marco Raya isn't protected by Tuesday's deadline. He started last year in the same conversation as David Festa in terms of being in the next wave of top pitching talent in the farm system before the latter distanced himself and eventually got promoted.

Raya isn't going to be an Opening Day roster guy, but there's a decent chance we see him have the sort of ascension we did with Festa and Zebby Matthews. If the Twins aren't going to spend or trade their way into improving the rotation, then Raya could make sense as a midseason call-up to offer some support.

He'll need to keep cutting his teeth at St. Paul, but the stars are aligning for Raya to help lead the third wave of the youth movement in 2025.

Ricardo Olivar, C/LF

Each year the Twins seem to have a prospect bubbling just under the surface who rushes to the front of the hype train and becomes the conductor. There's a chance Ricardo Olivar is that guy next season, as he has all the makings of a fast-rising prospect who the team can't afford to let get away in the Rule 5 Draft.

Olivar isn't going to light anyone on fire with his bat, but he's winning folks over with his defense and could help fill some areas of need down the road. He's split time between the outfield and behind the plate, two spots with some major questions marks moving forward.

While his offense isn't stellar, he's got the right pop to at least intrigue the right people into thinking he can develop.

We don't know what the catcher situation will be beyond this year, and Olivar is the type of underrated prospect the team will want to hold onto and see what they have, rather than letting another team benefit from finding out instead.

Kala'i Rosario, OF

This one seems to have fans split down the middle, but if the Twins have roster space they aren't going to seriously use to improve the team then adding Rosario makes sense. He slashed .235/.321/.405 with 19 doubles and eight homers in 56 games at Double-A Wichita last year and could be one of those safety valves the team pulls to find help without spending money.

Rosario is a tricky prospect, as injuries caused him to regress a bit last year but he's a season removed from being the 2023 Fall League Home Run Derby champion. That's a classic Twins dichotomy to deal with, but it's also the sort of thing that could result in him getting poached by a team looking for a high upside flier.

Notable Twins prospects who might not get protected from the Rule 5 Draft

Jose Salas, INF

When the Twins traded Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas was extra filling with cherry-on-top upside. At the time he was a 19-year-old prospect in the Marlins Top 5 who seemed like potential trade currency but has sort of plateaued in his development.

Salas isn't a lock to be protected, but there's no guarantee he'll get selected. He was left off the 40-man roster last season and didn't get picked up by another team, and he didn't do much this past season to boost his signal on anyone's radar.

It's more of a novelty protection since losing him would eliminate an element of the Arraez-Lopez deal, but it's not like he's factored in much anyways.

Will Holland, SS/CF

Here's another tricky one, as Will Holland was a middling prospect until he went on an absolute tear for a stretch of last season. After getting promoted to Triple-A St. Paul, Holland hit .299/.428/.556 with six homers, 10 doubles and 13 steals in 41 games, which absolutely will pique some interest if he's left unprotected.

That being said, the hot streak he was on ended because of an injury which is classic Twins stuff. He's also 26-years-old and Minnesota probably isn't promoting him in 2025 unless it's a situation like we saw this past September.

Even then he might not be high on the list of guys to promote, which seems to indicate leaving him off the 40-man roster is a safe gamble.

Christian MacLeod, SP

A few degrees removed from the argument for Marco Raya making his MLB debut in 2025 is Christian MacLeod. He's a a pretty strong three pitch mix that has raised his stock a bit and might be someone the Twins can develop into a bullpen arm if not a back-end rotation starter.

There's a lot of road left to travel before we get there, though, which is why MacLeod is a lower-tier pitching prospect the Twins might be able to get away with not protecting. His fastball has maxed out at around 92 MPH which means he isn't exactly flamethrower material, but Minnesota loves to stockpile arms so there's a mild chance he gets protected just to be safe.

Rubel Cespedes, INF

Last year Yunior Severino was a hot name that ended up getting Rule 5 protection, and Rubel Cespedes could take the baton this season. He hit .282/.346/.431 in 463 plate apperances in Single-A who has postionial flexibilty that screams the kind of utility guy the Twins love to keep around.

Specifically, his ability to play first and third could come in handy given the question marks at both spots. Cespedes wouldn't be starting over anyone -- and he's likely not even getting to the same block as the house with the door to knock on for MLB promotion -- but he at least makes sense as future platoon depth.

That's where the gamble lies, as he's not lighting things up enough to be an obvious protection but has underrated talent that could get stolen away.

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