The Minnesota Twins are heading toward an interesting trade deadline and one of the biggest decisions is what to do with starter Joe Ryan. Ryan is considered one of the top trade candidates in baseball as he’ll become a free agent after the 2027 season. But while the Twins can maximize their return by shopping him in the next month, it would be a critical blow to the team’s playoff chances as they sit two games behind the Boston Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot in the American League entering Monday.
With that, Ryan being listed as No. 2 on The Athletic’s trade deadline big board is noteworthy. But so is the red dot they put next to his name, signaling that it’s unlikely he’ll be traded. It’s a decision that will be general manager Jeremy Zoll’s first that will shape the future of the team, but also one that gives the Twins a win no matter which way they decide to go.
Twins have options with Joe Ryan ahead of trade deadline
In the minds of Twins fans, they would love to keep Ryan. Entering Monday’s start against the Cleveland Guardians, Ryan is 6-5 with a 2.85 ERA, 128 strikeouts and 25 walks in 110.1 innings. He is also heading into the peak of his career, coming off his second All-Star appearance and a prized asset for any team looking to contend, according to the panel including Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr., Chad Jennings and Eno Sarris.
“The [non-Tarik Skubal] pitching prize of the deadline, Ryan added a new knuckle curve to his mix this year and looks to be in the midst of a career year,” The panel wrote. “That pitch is the best breaking ball he’s ever thrown, and putting that into an arsenal with a deceptive fastball and decent splitter means he’s cooking with gas. Yes, Ryan is a fly ball guy heading to the homer months with a lively ball. But he’s also had success while giving up homers in the past and this new arsenal may help him avoid those issues this year.”
That assessment makes it sound like Ryan is a pitcher that any team would want for a playoff push. But he would also be the most help to the Twins.
Pablo Lopez’s season ended before it began during Spring Training and the Twins have likely lost Mick Abel for the season with another elbow injury. While Taj Bradley has broken out and Bailey Ober has been solid, the back half of the rotation has been pieced together with players who would not be ready to replace Ryan.
However, keeping Ryan comes with some risk. With a season and a half of team control, the Twins could attempt to maximize his trade value in the same way they did with Jose Berrios before trading him to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. While the end result was underwhelming with Austin Martin looking like a reserve outfielder and Simeon Woods Richardson no longer with the organization, they were both top 100 prospects at the time of the trade.
If anything, the Twins could get an even bigger haul if they trade Ryan right now. As good as Berrios was, he was far from one of the biggest names traded in 2021 and if the Detroit Tigers decide to keep Skubal, Ryan will be the biggest available pitcher on the market, assuming he has no interest in signing a contract extension.
But no matter how many prospects the Twins could get in a deal, there’s some risk the other way. Twins fans have prospect fatigue after seeing many of them get hurt or fail to live up to their potential. Even Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper couldn’t escape the injury bug and there’s no guarantee the Twins will get a replacement for Ryan even if they make the trade right now.
With that, the Twins can keep Ryan and have him pitch through the second half and there’s still a way to cash in next spring. The Milwaukee Brewers faced a similar situation with Corbin Burnes during the summer of 2023 and while they waited until February, they still wound up with a solid haul of infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall and a 2024 draft pick that became first baseman Blake Burke, who is the No. 15 prospect in the Brewers’ organization per MLB Pipeline.
With this in mind, it takes some of the pressure off the Twins to deal Ryan now. If they get a massive offer, the Twins would be wise to make the deal and cash in their ticket. If they don’t, they can ride Ryan to the end of the year and see what they can get next winter – assuming MLB avoids its inevitable lockout.
Of course, Twins fans would rather have Ryan sign a long-term extension to stay in Minnesota. But if the two sides are far apart, trading him is the best option, no matter when they decide to do it.
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