Minnesota Twins: 5 undervalued free agent hitters to pursue

As the Minnesota Twins look to the offseason, where could they possibly invest some money to get a bargain bat?

The Minnesota Twins have been rumored by a number of writers to have a significant amount of money to use. Instead of going after the “big” bats like Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, and J.D. Martinez, could the Twins be better served by pursuing one (or even multiple) undervalued options on the market?

We’ll look at 5 possibilities, going in alphabetical order…

Yonder Alonso, 1B

Age on Opening Day: 30
2017 Salary: $4 million
2017 Stats: .266/.365/.501, 521 PA, 28 HR, 2 SB, 13.1% BB, 22.6% K
Info: One of the strongest benefactors of the “swing plane revolution” this season, Alfonso was a guy coming out of college who was considered an elite hitter, likely to hit for both average and power. The Twins actually drafted Alonso coming out of high school in Florida before he went to the University of Miami and was taken 7th overall in 2008 by the Reds.

After 2 partial seasons at the major league level with the Reds, he was part of the Mat Latos trade with San Diego where the Reds sent a quartet of young players that all developed into quality major league players to the Padres for Latos. Alonso showed himself to be an elite defender at first base but struggled to stay healthy with the Padres while also not producing the power expected from a first baseman.

The Padres traded him to the Oakland Athletics before the 2016 season in a deal that involved Drew Pomeranz going to San Diego. His first season in Oakland he produced more power than he’d shown in San Diego with 34 doubles in Oakland’s big park. Then he spent the offseason working with the A’s coaches to improve his launch angle.

The result was 22 doubles and 28 home runs between Oakland and Seattle in two fairly expansive home ballparks. He essentially flipped his ground ball rate and fly ball rate, keeping his line drive rate the same, adding a tick to his medium strength contact and nearly 4% to his hard contact, leaving only 13.2% of his balls classified as soft contact.

With that much hard contact, it’s fairly easy to see Alonso continuing his progress in 2018, and though he’d be another lefty bat, signing him to something like a 3-year, $33 million deal with an option or two if he can keep up what he did in 2017 along with some incentives based on production.

Melky Cabrera, OF

Age on Opening Day: 33
2017 Salary: $15 million
2017 Stats: .285/.324/.423, 666 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, 5.4% BB, 11.1% K
Info: Cabrera was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Yankees, and by the time he got to the major leagues, he had plenty of “New York hype” behind him. When he hit .280 for the 2006 Yankees as a rookie, that hype train got even louder, but he never improved on that season with the Yankees, leading to his trade to the Braves before the 2010 season.

Cabrera showed up to the Braves incredibly out of shape and never could get going in that season. He left for the Royals after 2010, where he had his first big season before heading to San Francisco and having his one All-Star season, leading the league with a .346 when he failed a PED test and was suspended for the remainder of the 2012 season and part of the 2013 season.

The Blue Jays waited out the end of his suspension and saw Cabrera bounce back with the bat in 2014, hitting .301/.351/.458 with 16 home runs. He signed with the White Sox after that season and just finished out a three year contract with them having been traded back to Kansas City for the final few months of 2017.

Cabrera is a career .286/.335/.418 hitter with excellent line drive power, and he can pop the occasional home run, likely maxing out with 15ish. He has lost his ability to be a competent defender, but he still can hit, and he’s a switch hitter, which would allow him to contribute for the Twins as a DH and rare outfield fill-in.

Cabrera is likely not going to make what he did with the White Sox in that contract, but gauging his value is difficult. I’d wager a 2/$16 million deal would more than get his attention.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF

Age on Opening Day: 32
2017 Salary: $20 million
2017 Stats: .262/.339/.423, 534 PA, 14 HR, 3 SB, 10.5% BB, 22.3% K
Info: Gonzalez just two years ago was one of the 10-15 best players in all of the National League, hitting 40 home runs, and he followed that up in 2016 by hitting 42 doubles and 25 home runs. After years where he struggled to stay healthy, Gonzalez has cleared 500 plate appearances each of the last three years.

In 2017, however, Gonzalez saw his production take a significant dip. The majority of this was due to Gonzalez having the lowest hard hit rate he’s had in half a decade. He dropped his HR/FB rate as low as it’s ever been as a major leaguer in large part due to that decline in hard hit rate.

When you dig into the stats further, Gonzalez was playing hurt through the middle of the season, and toward mid-August, his hard-hit rate really ticked up, allowing him to finish the season strong, with a split of .377/.484/.766 for the month, with 6 home runs over the month. He saw his hard hit rate nearly double that of his season rate in the month of September.

The Twins would be once again signing a lefty bat that they’re hoping to use at DH, but CarGo could be a guy with a monster bounceback in him, especially if he can get back to that 40 home run guy.

If the Twins were to come with a 1-year, $11 million offer with a vesting option for 2019 that could pay him significantly based on performance, I think it’d turn Gonzalez’s head for sure.

Logan Morrison, 1B

Age on Opening Day: 30
2017 Salary: $2.5 million
2017 Stats: .246/.353/.516, 601 PA, 38 HR, 2 SB, 13.5% BB, 24.8% K
Info: Morrison grew into national conscious due to his prolific use of Twitter in the early days of the platform. He also hit 24 home runs in low-A in 2007, so people were interested in him as a prospect.

However, once Morrison got to the major leagues, he struggled to make consistent contact in the major leagues. Until he got to the Mariners in 2014, he hadn’t hit over .250.

Morrison still hasn’t hit over .250 in any other season than that 2014 season, but in 2017, he really worked at his pitch recognition to be choosy about which pitch he would attack and putting a hard swing on it once he committed. That led to his best isolated power by almost 100 points!

Morrison is not a great defender, but he is a surprisingly good athlete, even if he isn’t a great defender. Morrison would be a good fit to work at DH in the middle of the lineup, giving Joe Mauer a day off now and then at first base.

Morrison has struggled to stay healthy, with 2017 being the first time he ever had more than 600 plate appearances in a season.

Morrison is young enough that he could be looking for a few years on his deal, but with his health stuff, the Twins could possibly get him for 3 years and $28 million.