Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians Series Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians match up in a mid-week series that has big playoff implications

Even as the Minnesota Twins fight for a playoff spot through the Wild Card, they are not completely eliminated from the AL Central division race, in spite of what you may hear on various networks.

Entering this week’s series, the Twins and Indians are separated by 5 games in the standings. The Indians are currently the 3rd-rated team in American League division winners in record. The Twins are one-half game back of the second Wild Card spot.

In August, the Indians have gone 7-5 after going 15-11 in July. The Twins have gone 9-4 in August after going 10-15 in July. The Indians lead the season series 8-5, outscoring the Twins 59-36 on the season.

While a 3-game sweep wouldn’t put the Twins in first place, it would bring the Twins to within 2 games of the Indians. More importantly, it’d even the season series, with the final series of the season in the last week of the year (September 26-28) in Cleveland deciding the season series and possibly being incredibly important for the division.

Let’s take a look at how the teams match up in each game:

Next: Game 1

Game 1: Tuesday evening

Cleveland Indians starter: Danny Salazar, RHP
Last 5 starts vs. Minnesota: 1-2, 6.35 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 22 2/3 innings,
13/21 BB/K
Salazar has been excellent since returning on July 22nd from a nearly 2-month absence due to shoulder soreness in his pitching arm. He’s made 4 starts since his return, throwing 25 1/3 innings, with a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 9/36 BB/K ratio.

Salazar has some history with Twins hitters as well. Here’s each prominent Twins hitter and their career line against Salazar:

• Brian Dozier, 31 PA, .414/.452/.828, 6 2B, 2 HR, 2/9 BB/K
• Joe Mauer, 24 PA, .429/.500/.762, 4 2B, HR, 3/3 BB/K
• Eduardo Escobar, 16 PA, .214/.313/.357, 2 2B, 2/4 BB/K
• Miguel Sano, 10 PA, .143/.400/.143, 3/4 BB/K
• Robbie Grossman, 9 PA, .500/.556/.500, 1/2 BB/K
• Eddie Rosario, 9 PA, .222/.222/.556, HR, 0/3 BB/K
• Jason Castro, 8 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0/5 BB/K
• Max Kepler, 7 PA, .429/.429/1.286, 2 HR
• Jorge Polanco, 6 PA, .000/.333/.000, 2/0 BB/K
• Byron Buxton, 2 PA, HR

Certainly, Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer have done very well against Salazar in multiple games of exposure, but most of the lineup really hasn’t seen much of Salazar, and the way he’s pitching, that could mean a low-scoring game early on at least.

Minnesota Twins starter: Bartolo Colon, RHP
Last 5 starts vs. Cleveland: 3-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29 IP, 3/21 BB/K
Colon has been a revelation since coming over to the Twins, especially in his last 3 starts, when he’s won two of the three, going 22 1/3 innings, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with a 3/11 BB/K ratio. He’s not going to blow anyone away with velocity, but Colon has relied on the Twins defense behind him and challenged hitters to fool themselves.

The Indians key hitters in their careers against Colon:

• Edwin Encarnacion, 20 PA, .211/.250/.263, 2B, 1/4 BB/K
• Austin Jackson, 18 PA, .294/.333/.353, 2B, 1/6 BB/K
• Jason Kipnis, 10 PA, .333/.300/.889, 2 2B, HR, 0/1 BB/K
• Jay Bruce, 9 PA, .250/.333/1.000, 2 HR, 1/0 BB/K
• Carlos Santana, 9 PA, .125/.222/.500, HR, 1/1 BB/K
• Yan Gomes, 8 PA, .125/.125/.250, 2B, 0/2 BB/K
• Brandon Guyer, 3 PA, .333/.333/.333
• Francisco Lindor, 3 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0/1 BB/K
• Jose Ramirez and Bradley Zimmer, no plate appearances

Primary bench guys Abraham Almonte and Fernando Perez also have no plate appearances against Colon. With Colon spending the last number of years in the National League, he’s really not faced most of the Indians young lineup. That could favor Colon early as guys are not used to the way Colon will move the ball and get excellent late movement on his pitches.

Let’s look at the second game…

Next: Game 2

Game 2: Wednesday evening

Cleveland Indians starter: Carlos Carrasco, RHP
Last 5 starts vs. Minnesota: 2-3, 6.08 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 11/23 BB/K, 26 2/3 IP
Carrasco has been on the verge of taking the step to becoming an elite start for a number of years. He’s got a tremendous mix of pitches that can keep hitters at bay, and he’s been able to strike out more than a hitter per inning throughout his career. He’s had a solid season this year, though he’s struggled with the home run ball, keeping his ERA higher than one would expect with his raw stuff.

Twins hitters against Carrasco:

• Brian Dozier, 27 PA, .208/.259/.583, 3 HR, 1/5 BB/K
• Joe Mauer, 27 PA, .440/.481/.720, 4 2B, HR, 2/8 BB/K
• Jason Castro, 15 PA, .214/.267/.286, 2B, 1/5 BB/K
• Miguel Sano, 14 PA, .417/.500/.500, 2B, 2/2 BB/K
• Robbie Grossman, 9 PA, .125/.222/.250, 2B, 1/3 BB/K
• Max Kepler, 9 PA, .143/.333/.571, HR, 2/1 BB/K
• Eddie Rosario, 9 PA, .429/.556/.857, HR, 2/2 BB/K
• Byron Buxton, 5 PA, .000/.200/.000, 0/1 BB/K
• Jorge Polanco, 5 PA, .250/.400/.500, 2B, 1/1 BB/K

Mauer, Sano, and Rosario have all done well with Carrasco in their career, but his issues with home runs this year could allow a Twins team that’s been been known to knock out quite a few long balls to take advantage.

Minnesota Twins starter: Kyle Gibson, RHP
Last 5 starts vs. Cleveland: 0-3, 5.74 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 13/7 BB/K, 26 2/3 IP
Gibson has had mixed results since being recalled on August 5th. He’s thrown 10 innings across two starts, allowing 6 runs, but had a 4/10 BB/K ratio. He’s shown good stuff, but he’s had a bad habit of getting into a bad inning and not being able to get out of it until a couple of runs have come across the plate.

Cleveland hitters against Gibson:

• Carlos Santana, 34 PA, .179/.324/.500, 3 HR, 5/4 BB/K
• Jason Kipnis, 28 PA, .450/.607/.700, 2 2B, HR, 8/2 BB/K
• Yan Gomes, 22 PA, .450/.500/.850, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1/4 BB/K
• Jose Ramirez, 21 PA, .368/.429/.632, 2 2B, HR, 2/3 BB/K
• Edwin Encarnacion, 20 PA, .400/.500/1.067, 2B, 3 HR, 4/3 BB/K
• Francisco Lindor, 20 PA, .500/.550/.556, 2B, 2/0 BB/K
• Austin Jackson, 17 PA, .188/.235/.188, 1/3 BB/K
• Abraham Almonte, 13 PA, .182/.308/.364, 2 2/b, 2/5 BB/K
• Roberto Perez, 5 PA, .400/.400/.400, 0/1 BB/K
• Bradley Zimmer, 5 PA, .400/.400/.400, 0/1 BB/K

That lineup of statistics doesn’t inspire a Twins fan much for sure, but Gibson has certainly pitched with more dominance than in the past since being called back up. Hopefully, Paul Molitor will be on the ball with calling out to the bullpen if needed!

Next: Game 3

Game 3: Thursday afternoon

Cleveland Indians starter: Mike Clevinger, RHP
Career vs. Minnesota (4 starts): 0-1, 3.78 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 12/17 BB/K, 16 2/3 IP
Clevinger had been throwing very well before a rough patch at the end of July. The Indians skipped Clevinger for a couple of turns in the rotation, but he rejoined the rotation on August 12th and threw 7 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts against the Rays. On the season, Clevinger has struck out 90 in 81 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA on the season.

Minnesota’s hitters against Clevinger:

• Brian Dozier, 10 PA, .333/.400/.667, HR, 1/3 BB/K
• Max Kepler, 9 PA, .125/.222/.125, 1/2 BB/K
• Joe Mauer, 9 PA, .500/.556/.625, 2B, 1/1 BB/K
• Miguel Sano, 9 PA, .333/.556/1.000, 2B, HR, 3/2 BB/K
• Byron Buxton, 6 PA, .000/.333/.000, 2/1 BB/K
• Jorge Polanco, 5 PA, .250/.400/.250, 1/1 BB/K
• Eduardo Escobar, 4 PA, .250/.250/.500, 2B, 0/2 BB/K
• Eddie Rosario, 4 PA, .250/.250/.250, 0/2 BB/K
• Robbie Grossman, 4 PA, .000/.250/.000, 1/1 BB/K
• Jason Castro, 3 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0/1 BB/K

The Minnesota Twins will have a good shot in the finale to come up against a pitcher without a lot of experience in the major leagues and that a number of the hitters on the team have a good track record against. The Twins could go with a “get away day” lineup, however, so watch for a lineup with guys like Ehire Adrianza starting.

Minnesota Twins starter: Jose Berrios, RHP
Last 5 starts against Cleveland: 2-2, 5.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7/15 BB/K, 20 1/3 IP
Berrios has had a tremendous 2017, winning 10 games for the Twins in his first full season, but he’s come on a tough patch recently. In his last 4 starts, he’s had a 7.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 6/13 BB/K over 19 1/3 innings. Berrios has struggled on the road this year, but he’s been much better at home, and he’s at home in this game, which should certainly help as he works to get back on track.

Cleveland’s hitters against Berrios:

• Carlos Santana, 11 PA, .444/.545/1.000, 3B, HR, 2/2 BB/K
• Francisco Lindor, 10 PA, .333/.400/.444, 2B, 1/0 BB/K
• Jose Ramirez, 10 PA, .300/.300/.300
• Jason Kipnis, 9 PA, .111/.111/.222, 2B, 0/3 BB/K
• Abraham Almonte, 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0/2 BB/K
• Yan Gomes, 5 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0/1 BB/K
• Edwin Encarnacion, 3 PA, .000/.000/.000
• Roberto Perez, 3 PA, .000/.000/.000
• Jay Bruce 2 PA, .000/.500/.000, 1/1 BB/K

Berrios will have the benefit of most of the Indians lineup having nearly no experience against him, especially any experience against him when he throws well. He struggled against the Indians without his best stuff at the end of 2016, but he’s throwing with better stuff even when he’s been struggling recently.

Next: Bullpen Matchups