Major League Baseball: Analyzing The Season Totals

Major League Baseball has kicked off Spring Training in full swing. Within a matter of days, every team will have player their first spring game, and fans will flood ballparks around Arizona and Florida. Prior to the season starting however, there is quite a few interesting totals to take a look at when it comes to individual statistics.

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Bovada and many other sports books make a yearly habit of unveiling prop bets prior to the season. At this point, the Twins win total has been set at 70.5 games. We already discussed that the over is the best play on that number, but how should we look at the individual totals for the upcoming season.

Take a look at the prop bets with aim on individual performances for the 2015 season, and let us know where you think the right side will fall.

Oct 12, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the 9th inning in game two of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Highest Save total by a pitcher 48.5

Last season Fernando Rodney recorded 48 saves for the Seattle Mariners with Craig Kimbrel right on his heels at 47 for Atlanta. Greg Holland finished third with 46 saves for the Kansas City Royals. Looking at each of those three teams this season, there’s some significant reason to believe that the numbers drop.

Atlanta is in a much different place this season than they have been previously. The Braves are almost assuredly going to be trailing both the Nationals and Marlins in the National League East, and could potential be near the bottom of the division. We picked the Royals to finish last in the AL Central, and that would significantly nullify Greg Holland’s save chances. The Mariners are still a team with playoff aspirations, but Rodney had a career year a season ago. Trevor Rosenthal posted 45 saves in 2014 for the Cardinals, and could be the guy to push the 48.5 number, but it would take a great season from a team competing in a very tough division.

At this point, I think the safest play is on the under when it comes to save total by a single player.

Play: Under 48.5

Feb 23, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher David Price (14) pitches during Monday mornings workout at Joker Merchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Highest Strikeout Total by a pitcher 255.5

In 2014, only two pitchers eclipsed the 255 strikeout mark, but both blew by that total. David Price recorded 271 strikeouts while Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber posted 269. Max Scherzer (252) and Felix Hernandez (248) just barely missed the mark. There’s no surprise in seeing that each of the top four in strikeouts hail from the American League.

Looking at the landscape of the 2015 season, it’s probably safe to expect Scherzer’s total to go down, not rise. Playing for Washington in the National League, he will have fewer opportunities to go deep in games as he is removed for a bat in key situations. That said, there’s probably one man on the list that finds themselves increasing his 2014 total. David Price.

Pitching for the Detroit Tigers for a full season should only help his 2015 prospects. Although the AL Central should be a competitive division in which teams beat up on one another, Price should find more strikeouts than he did in the top-heavy AL East. Also, having a down year by his standards in 2014, Price will be looking to rebound in a big way for the Tigers before signing a long-term deal.

Play: Over 255.5

Sep 8, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) hits a solo home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Highest Home Run total by a batter 42.5

A season ago, Nelson Cruz seemed to blast a home run on almost any given night. He ended up with a season total of 40, three more than strikeout-prone Chris Carter of Houston, and Giancarlo Stanton of Miami. The top five was rounded out by both Jose Abreu and Mike Trout launching 36 long balls.

Cruz goes from Baltimore to Seattle, and will likely have a tough time repeating the same level of success he had a season ago. Carter remains a wildcard, as he is always a power threat when he puts the bat on the ball. His strikeout numbers make his total hard to project, but there’s little doubt he launches more than 30 home runs in 2015. Trout is hands down the best player in baseball, but 40 home runs for him may even be a stretch, and Abreu will probably feel the pressure of following up his Rookie of the Year campaign. That leaves us Stanton.

Last season, Stanton looked like a very strong MVP candidate until being hit in the face and spending the rest of the year on the disabled list. There’s a strong argument to be made that he could have hit 45 home runs last season had he not ended up hurt. Therein lies the problem as well. Miami signed Stanton to a massive 13 year deal this offseason, but the young star hasn’t faced game situation pitching since his injury. I don’t think he experiences any long-term issues, but coming off the injury and not playing for a contract extension makes me think the production dips some this season.

Play: Under 42.5

October 4, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) hits an RBI single in the third inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Highest RBI total by a batter 127.5

The top five in runs batted in a season ago were Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and Jose Abreu. Looking at each of those hitters, it’s easy to understand why RBIs are a by-product of being put in good situations. Hitting in the middle of the lineup with guys that can get on base ahead of you, there’s no doubt you have solid chances to bring runs across the plate.

For the Dodgers, Gonzalez should once again be put in a solid run producing position, but it may not be as generous. Dee Gordon is gone from the top of the lineup, and his stolen bases getting him into scoring position will no longer benefit Los Angeles. Trout and Cabrera should probably see much of the same production this season, but a huge boost would be hard to expect. Cruz moving to Seattle, and what may actually be a lesser lineup than he had in Baltimore, could stifle some of his chances. The biggest riser on the top five might actually be Abreu, as the White Sox are a significantly better team than they were a season ago.

No matter how the top five players shuffle around, I have a hard time believing that such a significant increase will be seen over last season. Only Gonzalez posted more than 115 RBIs, and only Trout joined him posting over 100.

Play: Under 127.5