Ervin Over James, The Twins May Have Done Better
The Minnesota Twins knew that they needed to address pitching this offseason. Starting pitching was once again a problem in 2014, with Phil Hughes being the only viable starter for the club. After signing Ervin Santana this offseason, Minnesota is in a much different place. However, with James Shields just agreeing to a deal with the Padres, maybe the Twins did even better than we originally thought.
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Going into the offseason, it was Shields, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester that were going to be the starting arms commanding a big payday. Scherzer landed with the Nationals while Lester went to the Chicago Cubs. Shields road was a bit more bumpy, having just signed this week with the Padres. While the former two got their payday, Shields had to take concessions on his.
When looking at the four-year, $75 million deal that Shields commanded however, maybe the Twins did even better on Ervin Santana than we thought.
Let’s examine…
Sep 26, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ervin Santana (30) pitches during the first inning of a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Ervin Santana (32, $13.75 average annual value, 10 seasons)
The Twins locked down Santana to be a key cog in their rotation for at least the next four seasons. He has pitched over or near 200 innings every season since 2010, and he has made a career of consistently being dependable. Not a huge strikeout guy, he has held his own in compiling around 160 strikeouts a year for the majority of his career.
After skipping on him last season due to the loss of a draft pick, the Twins watched as Santana signed a one-year deal with the Braves. Once he hit the market again this season, Minnesota in a different position, made the move for a long-term deal. The $55 million contract ranks fourth amongst those handed out to starting pitchers this offseason.
Oct 26, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game five of the 2014 World Series at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
James Shields (33, $18.75 average annual value, 9 seasons)
After a successful beginning to his career in Tampa Bay, the Rays exchanged Shields with the Royals for outfield prospect, Wil Myers. He spent two seasons in Kansas City, and ended up leading the Royals to the World Series in 2014 for the first time since 1985. Like Santana, Shields is an innings eater pitching more than 200 innings every season in his career except one (following his call-up). He has posted strikeout marks as high as 225 in one season, but generally sits around 185 during any given year.
Having to wait through the market, Shields ceiling fell from the reported $120 million contract he was seeking, all the way down to the $75 million he finally agreed to. In joining a San Diego Padres team that was as active as anyone this offseason, Shields looks to be the ace of a staff that should be much improved over 2014.
Aug 13, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ervin Santana (30) delivers a pitch to Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) in the first inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
The Numbers
Twins fans often look at contract numbers as reflective of a certain statistical value to be expected. While that is fair to presume, in practice it is flawed reasoning due to the lack of a salary cap. Instead, contracts are more indicative of positioning when comparing one player to another. So, here we go.
Ervin Santana has just under 1,900 innings on his arm over the course of 10 major league seasons. He owns a career ERA of 4.17 and his career WHIP (walks/hits per innings pitched) checks in at 1.283. He owns a 7.2 K/9 ratio paired with a 2.8 BB/9 ratio.
James Shields has compiled just slightly over 1,900 innings throughout the course of a nine-year career. He has a career ERA that sits at 3.72 and has a career WHIP of 1.220. His K/9 ratio is 7.7 and he walks batters at a 2.1 BB/9 clip.
So what does this tell us?
Oct 21, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields warms up in the bullpen before game one of the 2014 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
The Verdict
Likely, this is as opinionated as anyone could be, and is always going to come down to the preference of each specific general manager. With that being said, here is what you would be getting.
A team is paying roughly $5 million more for a player in Shields, that is virtually the same age and has the same amount of wear as Santana. He is slightly better when it comes to giving up runs, and he walks a few less batters. Shields strikes out more batters by a small amount, and he eats quite a few more innings up over the course of a few years.
One knock against Shields has been that he is not the “Big Game” pitcher he has been dubbed as he struggles in the postseason. Realistically though, both pitchers have ERA’s that are north of 5.00 (despite Santana’s last trip coming in 2009).
What you have to ask yourself is whether or not $5 million is worth a slight gain, and whether or not it hamstrings your club going forward. For the Twins, pitching prospects is something they have an abundance of, and one guy may not be the only piece needed to reach the next level. With the way in which Terry Ryan constructed his rotation for 2015, it’s hard to poke any holes at the Twins decision over one pitcher or another.
At the end of the day, James Shields is going to pitch well in San Diego, and the expectation should be the same of Ervin Santana in Minnesota. Twins fans, enjoy the flashy signing the club made this offseason, and know it was the right one for now.
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