Could John Ryan Murphy be a breakout player for the Minnesota Twins in 2016?
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Catcher is widely regarded as the most difficult position in baseball to play. The backstop has a myriad things to manage mentally and also must be at the top of his game physically. Catchers have historically been undervalued economically in spite of the crucial nature of their role. They’re involved in every play defensively, they have to know every pitcher on their staff inside and out, they have to know every opposing batter almost as well, they put their bodies in harm’s way, their reflexes must be lightning quick, they need arm strength to throw out runners, they must know how to manage umpires and the strike zone and on top of all that, they have to hit as well. It’s no wonder with all their other responsibilities that catchers don’t typically hit as well as other positions. It also makes sense that catchers are often late bloomers considering all the skills they need to master.
John Ryan Murphy is 24 and has already shown promise in every aspect of the catcher’s game. Some aspects certainly still need work but defence especially is a teachable skill. That’s not to say that it’s not incredibly difficult to master but it’s not largely God-given like power is. Most good catchers, aside from Hall of Famers, need time and experience to develop the defensive parts of their game. Murphy is in that phase of his career. He’s still gaining experience and learning. And, for the most part, over his first three seasons he’s been steadily improving.
Many view him as a future starting catcher and possibly even an all star. However, some will look at his resume thus far and scoff. There’s nothing spectacular to write home about there. No, not yet. Consider beloved Twin Brian Harper. Harper was a replacement level catcher before coming to the Minnesota Twins. He didn’t become a starter until he was 28. Think about what he accomplished thereafter. George Mitterwald became the Twins primary catcher at 25. Earl Battey also was 25. Going outside the organization, Gregg Zaun wasn’t the go to guy until he was 33. Ernie Whitt was 28. Possible Hall of Famer, Jorge Posada, was 26. Before all those ages just mentioned, these catchers looked similar on paper to John Ryan Murphy. Often times, they just needed an opportunity.
And Murphy has a huge opportunity. Incumbent Kurt Suzuki had a terrible year at the plate in 2015. Three out of the past five years Suzuki has barely been above replacement level by WAR. If Suzuki can’t bounce back and Murphy can continue hitting and can provide competent defence, he’ll leave Minnesota Twins coaches with little choice but to run with him. Both catcher rate fairly similarly defensively. Playing time will then likely be determined by their offence.
Murphy rates as an average framer. Game calling is much more difficult to quantify but Murphy has a good reputation in this regard. Both Brian Cashman and Brian McCann vouched for that aspect of his game and both believe that he’s a starting catcher in the majors.
Murphy has improved his OPS each season thus far: .377, .688 and .734 (standard sample size caveats apply). His defensive runs above average have gone 0.8 in 2013, -0.3 in 2014 and 1.6 in 2015. By WAR he’s gone from -0.1 in 2013, 0.3 in 2014 to 0.7 in 2015. Steamer projects Murphy for 1.1 WAR in 2016. Adjusted for a full season, Steamer600 predicts a 2 WAR. By the same system, Suzuki is projected at 1.3 WAR.
Next: Craig Breslow as Possibility?
Murphy is a man on the rise. Like other catchers before him, he’s on the verge. He has an opportunity in 2016 and we think he’ll make the most of it.