It's okay to admit Minnesota Twins second baseman Luke Keaschall has had a disappointing sophomore season thus far while also acknowledging there are plenty of reasons to believe he should be a star for the Twins for years to come. Many have been wondering if the Twins should give him a reset in Triple-A St. Paul, as the club has done with Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner this year, but that could be a mistake.
Keaschall had an abysmal start to the season, slashing .217/.267/.275 (51 wRC+) in 131 plate appearances through April. But since then, the second baseman has posted a solid .280/.381/.355 (111 wRC+) slash line with a 14.3% strikeout rate in 126 plate appearances.
While it would be nice to see Keaschall slug a bit more, he never profiled as a power hitter. Still, he had much more extra-base pop in his 49 games last season, slugging .445 with four home runs and 14 doubles. In 64 games this season, Keaschall has hit just one home run, 10 doubles and one triple. Regardless, it's encouraging to see Keaschall reach base at a high rate as of late following his rough start to the year. Fans should remain patient with the former top prospect.
Keaschall struggles to hit the ball hard consistently, with an average exit velocity of 84.3 mph (2nd percentile), hard-hit rate of 27.7% (6th percentile) and average bat speed of 69.1% (14th percentile). However, he posted similar clips last season (86.2 mph average exit velocity and 31.1% hard-hit rate), yet slashed .302/.382/.445 (134 wRC+).
An encouraging sign that Keaschall will be just fine at the plate is his lack of strikeouts. Despite slashing just .247/.323/.313 (81 wRC+) this year, the second baseman has an elite strikeout rate of 15.2% (83rd percentile), whiff rate of 15.6% (91st percentile) and chase rate of 24.0% (82nd percentile). Additionally, he has a strong squared-up rate of 27.5% (68th percentile) and a solid sweet-spot percentage of 35.1% (57th percentile).
As a hitter, Keaschall may profile more like Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner than a power hitter such as Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. From 2021-25, Hoerner posted an above-average wRC+ in each season despite his exit velocity and bat speed ranking near the bottom of the league. Hoerner's ability to limit strikeouts and square the ball up has made him a successful hitter for a half-decade. If Keaschall can do that throughout his career, Twins fans should be content.
Keaschall's defense needs some work
However, one thing Hoerner does exceptionally well and Keaschall struggles with is playing strong second base defense. Hoerner is arguably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, posting +8 Outs Above Average (98th percentile) this year. Meanwhile, Keaschall is arguably the worst defensive second baseman, recording -8 Outs Above Average (5th percentile).
To unlock Keaschall's full potential, a position change may be in order. He has played outfield and first base in the minors, and has been getting some pre-game work in at first base lately.
Keaschall certainly has plenty to work on, but fans shouldn't write him off just yet.
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