Catcher/first baseman Victor Caratini has had a rough first season with the Minnesota Twins, hitting just .188/.290/.248 (57 wRC+) over 162 plate appearances. With Ryan Jeffers expected to be out until at least late June, the Twins need Caratini, who signed a two-year, $14 million contract with Minnesota in the offseason, to step up his game. Luckily, underlying metrics suggest Caratini will improve at the plate.
Caratini, a native of Coamo, Puerto Rico, owns a poor wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) of .254 this season. However, he has a solid xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base average) of .329, which ranks in the 60th percentile. Caratini's -.075 difference between xwOBA and wOBA suggests he's been the second-unluckiest qualified hitter in the league, with Cincinnati Reds third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes being the unluckiest (-.119 difference).
Caratini, 32, consistently hits the ball in the sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees, boasting a 40.4% sweet-spot percentage (89th percentile). He also sports an above-average squared-up rate of 30.1%, a chase rate of 26.7% (67th percentile) and a whiff rate of 21.5% (68th percentile). Caratini hasn't been hitting the ball particularly hard this year, with an average exit velocity of 89 mph (41st percentile) and a hard-hit rate of 37.5%, but his ability to square up the ball and lay off pitches outside the zone suggests his stats will improve.
Essentially, Caratini's underlying metrics suggest he should be a slightly above-average hitter, not arguably one of the worst in the league. Fans shouldn't give up on the former Astro just yet.
Caratini's strong defense a bright spot for catcher in rough first season with Twins
Caratini has struggled to control the run game, ranking in the first percentile in caught stealing above average (-2) and pop time (2.06 seconds). However, he's excelled in nearly every other facet of catching, recording +3 framing runs and +2 blocks above average. He's also been among the league's best in using the ABS challenge system, winning 22 of 33 challenges, gaining four strikeouts and eliminating one walk. Additionally, he can play first base at an average level, which is a valuable trait for a backup catcher.
Over the last two seasons with Houston, Caratini posted a solid .263/.329/.406 (108 wRC+) slash line. Twins fans would undoubtedly be content with Caratini's production if he can return to that version of himself, and the underlying numbers suggest he will.
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