The Twins acquired right-handed reliever Justin Topa as one of the main pieces in a trade package when they sent 2B Jorge Polanco to the Mariners in January before the 2024 season. Minnesota acquired Topa from Seattle along with starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani (now a free agent), outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, and right-handed pitching prospect Darren Bowen.
Why Twins reliever Justin Topa is poised for a surprise breakout
When the Twins acquired Topa before the 2024 season, he was supposed to be one of the Twins' primary setup arms. He was a huge part of the Mariners bullpen in 2023. In 75 appearances totaling 69 1/3 innings, Topa had a 2.61 ERA. He was extremely successful in not allowing hard contact despite having a low whiff rate and below-average strikeout totals.
Topa's opposing hitters had a barrel rate of just 3.0% in 2023, which ranked in the 97th percentile of all MLB pitchers (a 'barrel' being a batted ball hit at least 98 mph off the bat with a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees). Topa also had a ground ball rate of 57.4% that season, which ranked in the 94th percentile. Topa excelled at producing soft contact in 2023. His expected ERA was an impressive 2.97; to put it into perspective, only 25 of the 372 qualified pitchers had an expected ERA below three during the 2023 season.
Unfortunately, during spring training last season, Topa was dealing with left patellar tendinitis, an overuse injury that causes pain just below the kneecap. After a couple of failed rehab assignments, the Twins finally activated him off the Injured List on Sept. 20. He made his Twins debut 5 days later against the Marlins and pitched a scoreless inning out of the bullpen. In Topa's three outings after being activated, he allowed zero runs over 2 1/3 innings pitched.
Topa was fully healthy going into this year and has been a pretty reliable arm in a Twins bullpen that currently ranks 13th in baseball in terms of team ERA. In Topa's 12 appearances, totaling 12 innings, he has a 2.25 ERA. So far, we've seen a lot of similar characteristics to his breakout 2023 season in Seattle. Topa's still been extremely successful in limiting soft contact. He has the lowest barrel rate of his career at just 2.6% and also has a lower average exit velocity, at just 86.1 mph, which puts him in the 90th percentile. His expected ERA is also at a career-best 2.64, which is in the 87th percentile. As the season progresses, if Topa can maintain his elite barrel rate and ground ball tendencies, he should be a key arm in the Twins bullpen.