Long-time Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers will decline his one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer, according to The Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale. But that doesn't mean the Twins won't bring him back. According to multiple reports, including from Nightengale, Minnesota is interested in re-signing Jeffers.
The question is, what would it take for Minnesota to bring back the catcher?
Jeffers is clearly the best catcher on the free-agent market. Because he declined a QO, the backstop will certainly sign a multi-year deal. The lowest contract projection for Jeffers from a major outlet came from The Athletic's Jim Bowden, who predicted Jeffers will sign a two-year, $15.5 million deal. Since Jeffers declined a one-year deal nearly $8 million more than that, Bowden's prediction appears way off.
MLB Trade Rumors has the most lucrative contract prediction for Jeffers of any major outlet, projecting a four-year, $75 million deal. While that's probably closer to the mark than Bowden's prediction, it still seems high for a catcher turning 30 next summer.
Meanwhile, ESPN, FanGraphs and The Athletic (not Jim Bowden) have Jeffers signing a three-year deal in the $45-51 million range, likely the most accurate predictions.
If the Twins can sign Ryan Jeffers for three years at $45-51 million, should they do it?
It's hard to say. The Twins clearly have a need for a catcher in the short term, as the team's perceived catcher of the future, Vahn Lackey, has yet to play above High-A. But is it worth signing an aging Jeffers for three more years when Lackey could be ready as soon as late 2027?
Tom Pohlad plans to increase payroll. He's made that clear. Re-signing Jeffers would be one way to do that, and it would also help the organization meet a floor if the new CBA has a salary structure. Jeffers is well-liked in Minnesota, and he has made it known he enjoys playing for the Twins.
Allocating that much payroll to Jeffers for three years would be risky, given his age and the fact that Lackey is in the organization. However, for all we know, Lackey could be a bust. Jeffers has proven he can be an elite MLB hitter at his best; he posted a 128 wRC+ over 92 games last season. If the Twins sign Jeffers for three more years and Lackey is ready for his big-league debut during that time, which is likely, Jeffers could serve as a designated hitter more often or even move to first base.
If the Twins can sign Jeffers for three years at around $50 million, they should make the deal. But if Jeffers demands a contract closer to MLB Trade Rumors' prediction, Minnesota should look for catching help elsewhere.
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