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What the Twins would lose by signing a free agent who declined qualifying offer

The Minnesota Twins would be penalized if they sign a free agent who declined the qualifying offer this offseason.
ByJackson Kruse
May 6, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton (8) sits in the dugout against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
May 6, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton (8) sits in the dugout against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Minnesota Twins are looking to increase payroll this offseason. At least, that's what control person Tom Pohlad suggested in an end-of-year media session. During the press conference, Pohlad made it clear he intends to give the front office the financial freedom needed to compete in 2027.

Of course, the looming lockout could majorly affect the offseason. Until a new CBA is agreed upon, we really have no idea how free agency will go. Unless the players' association and MLB surprisingly agree to a new CBA before Dec. 1, teams won't be able to make free-agent signings from Dec. 1 until a new bargaining agreement is in place.

We do know that teams will extend qualifying offers before the expected lockout. MLB teams have five days after the World Series ends to give a qualifying offer to eligible free agents. Once the offer is extended, the player has 10 days to accept or decline it.

If the Twins really plan to sign notable free agents this offseason, they'll likely be in the running for at least one player who declined a qualifying offer. Unfortunately, Minnesota will lose a draft pick if the club signs a player who declined a QO.

What would the Minnesota Twins lose by signing a player who declined a qualifying offer this offseason?

The Twins will lose their third-highest draft pick if they sign a player who declined a qualifying offer, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Players likely to receive a qualifying offer include second baseman Brandon Lowe, right-hander Trevor Rogers, right-hander David Bednar and left-hander Adrian Morejon. All of those are players whom the Twins could target this offseason.

Minnesota appears set on competing next year, so the club shouldn't worry about losing a draft pick by signing one of the aforementioned players. The Twins will likely extend a QO to Ryan Jeffers anyway, which will allow them to receive a draft pick if he declines the offer and signs with another team.

Therefore, the Twins' brass likely wouldn't feel like they lost a pick if they sign a player who turned down a QO as long as they gain a pick from Jeffers signing with another team. Of course, Jeffers could accept the QO, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the current CBA expiring on Dec. 1. Still, Jeffers will most likely decline the QO if the Twins extend it to him.

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