If the ABS challenge system didn't exist, the Twins' season could be going much differently than it has thus far. Minnesota leads MLB in lost challenges (26), but it also leads the league in runs gained (7.2) by a wide margin, with the Seattle Mariners ranked second with 5.4 runs. Continuing to successfully use ABS could be the reason the team makes the postseason.
Twins are winning games partly due to the ABS challenge system
We dove into this exact topic on @twinstv on Wednesday. Twins are on pace for roughly 70 runs gained if they maintain this same aggressive strategy. What does that mean? 7 wins alone based on ABS success. https://t.co/ktpEjCThr7
— Cory Provus (@CoryProvus) April 17, 2026
Minnesota leads MLB in successful overturns among batting teams with 15, and ranks second behind the Miami Marlins in most overturns among fielding teams with 20.
Offensively, Austin Martin, Josh Bell and Kody Clemens lead Minnesota with three challenges won.
Ryan Jeffers, who is 2-for-2 in offensive challenges, is among the best defensive challengers in baseball. The Twins catcher has 12 successful overturns behind the plate, the best in MLB besides William Contreras, Salvador Perez and Will Smith, who each have 13. Jeffers also leads the league in strikeouts gained on challenges with eight; the Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh and the Colorado Rockies' Brett Sullivan are tied for second with five.
Victor Caratini has also been outstanding in his use of the ABS challenge system as Minnesota's backup catcher, winning eight of 10 defensive challenges with two strikeouts gained.
FanGraphs projects the Twins will win 81.9 games. PECOTA projects they will win 81.6 games. If the Twins end up as a low-80s-win team this year, they'll likely either barely miss or make the postseason, especially with the American League appearing much weaker than the National League this year. Notably, the Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs with just 83 wins last year. Even if the Twins win just a couple of games due to ABS, it could be the difference the team needs to play in October.
However, while the Twins are gaining plenty of runs via the ABS Challenge system, their opponents have also been using it effectively.
Twins' opponents are also successfully using ABS
On the left is Runs Gained on ABS Challenges, which the Twins lead rather aggressively with 7.2 runs
— Tangotiger 🍁 (@tangotiger) April 17, 2026
On the right is Runs Gained by their opponents, with 6 runs
So, net effect is only +1.2 runs. Basically, the opponents are fighting fire with fire pic.twitter.com/kOdK7DWItS
Still, the Twins would likely have fewer wins this year if they weren't as good as using the ABS system as they have been. As long as they keep being aggressive in the right spots with ABS, the Twins should end up winning several more games than they would if they were a poor challenging club. Hopefully Minnesota will continue to challenge pitches often and in the right spots.
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