Despite having a 27-29 record and a -9 run differential, the Minnesota Twins are tied with the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays for the third American League Wild Card spot. As for the AL Central standings, the Twins trail the first-place Cleveland Guardians (33-25) by 5 games, and the Chicago White Sox are second in the division with a 28-27 record.
The Twins have had an up-and-down season, to say the least. After beginning the year with an 11-7 record, Minnesota lost 16 of 21 games before winning 11 of 17 games.
Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have wildly different playoff odds for the Twins, perfectly reflecting the team's inconsistent season. Here are the three websites' postseason odds for Minnesota:
- Make playoffs: 5.9%
- Win Division: 1.6%
- Clinch Wild Card: 4.4%
- Win World Series: 0.1%
- Make playoffs: 30.0%
- Win Division: 16.3%
- Clinch Wild Card: 13.7%
- Win World Series: 1.1%
- Make playoffs: 13.3%
- Win Division: 5.5%
- Clinch Wild Card: 7.8%
- Win World Series: 0.9%
It's almost unbelievable how different the projections above are. A 24.1% difference in playoff odds between FanGraphs and Baseball Reference not only proves how inconsistent the Twins have been this season, but also how unpredictable Major League Baseball is year after year.
In all likelihood, the Twins' players will be watching the playoffs from their couches. However, the fact that they currently hold a postseason spot shows they have a decent chance of making the postseason.
Twins likely won't make playoffs, but there are reasons to have hope
Even though Connor Prielipp had a rough start against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday night, the Twins' starting rotation is the main reason to be optimistic that the team could make a surprise postseason run. As of Thursday morning, Minnesota's starting pitchers rank 10th in ERA (3.91) and fWAR (5.0), sixth in walk rate (7.6%) and eighth in opponent batting average (.229). Despite Taj Bradley and Mick Abel missing time, Minnesota's rotation has arguably been the team's biggest bright spot. Not to mention, the team has been without Pablo López the whole year after he underwent season-ending elbow surgery in February.
The Twins' offense has been decent as well, ranking eighth in runs (256). Entering Thursday, Twins hitters who have recorded at least 140 plate appearances and are having above-average seasons at the plate include Byron Buxton (146 wRC+), Austin Martin (125 wRC+), Trevor Larnach (122 wRC+), Kody Clemens (107 wRC+), Brooks Lee (102 wRC+) and Ryan Jeffers (166 wRC+). Unfortunately, Jeffers is sidelined until late June or July due to a left hamate bone fracture he suffered on May 18.
The Twins' bullpen and defense have been the team's weak spots this year. As of Thursday morning, Minnesota ranks 27th in bullpen ERA (4.94) and Defensive Runs Saved (-15). However, Minnesota's bullpen has improved lately, ranking 13th in ERA (3.09) since May 9, and the team's defense should be much better going forward. The Twins moved Brooks Lee to third base after he ranked second-to-last in DRS (-7) among shortstops and demoted outfielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul after he ranked last in DRS (-8) among all players.
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