Twins' starting rotation is projected to be better than fans might think in 2026

The 2025 season was disappointing all around. The Minnesota Twins didn't get it done at the plate, on the bases, on defense, or on the mound. But 2025 is behind us. It is time to look ahead as a new manager leads this franchise.

Fans should be excited, but if they aren't already, FanGraphs' latest starting rotation projections should add a little spark. The Twins' rotation is projected to be the 11th most productive in all of baseball, and sixth among American League clubs.

Minnesota Twins' starting pitching projects well for the 2026 season

1. Joe Ryan

We love Joe Ryan around these parts. He had one of the best single-season starting pitching performances this century, and he deserves to be heralded among the game's best.

Ryan, entering his sixth MLB season, is projected for a rotation-high 3.4 fWAR. His projected 3.84 ERA feels a bit high, considering his last two campaigns were well-below that. Either way, we're pumped for another Joe Ryan-led season in Minnesota.

2. Pablo López

López's health should be up to standard now after gritting through hamstring, shoulder, and forearm problems in 2025. He still registered a 2.74 ERA, but only in 14 starts. He is projected to be right behind Ryan with a 3.2 fWAR with a 3.83 ERA.

3. Bailey Ober

We know that Ryand López are going to produce in 2026. This is where things get a bit murky in the Twins' rotation, but Ober is expected to use his elite chase rate and walk rate to his advantage. Ober's horrible June inflated his overall numbers, but if you look at his full body of work, there is reason for fans to believe that Ober can put together a complete season.

If he does, that would make this staff one of the best in the AL. He is projected for a 1.7 fWAR.

4. Simeon Woods Richardson

SWR has a solid four-pitch arsenal that allows him to keep hitters off balance. He just needs to do a better job executing, but we saw him get comfortable down the stretch. In September, he allowed seven runs in 27 innings with 36 strikeouts. That level of dominance will play towards the bottom of the rotation, where is expected to reel in a 1.2 fWAR.

5. Zebby Matthews

Matthews will contend for the final spot in the rotation, but FanGraphs has him slotted at 105 projected innings with a 1.7fWAR. The right-handed flame-thrower could very well earn that spot, and he provides a lifeline towards the bottom of the order when the Twins need a win.

Other options: Mick Abel and Taj Bradley

Honestly, either youngster deserves a shot at the rotation in 2026, it's just a matter of which one will be given more opportunity. Injuries are also inevitable, so if another arm goes down, let's hope either Abel or Bradley can step up and prove why they have been among the game's best pitching prospects.