It's been a rough June for Twins reliever Eric Orze, whom Minnesota acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the offseason. In 9 2/3 innings across 10 appearances this month, the 28-year-old right-hander has posted a 9.31 ERA while allowing 15 hits and five walks. On the season, Orze has a rough 5.35 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 37 innings.
It's easy to believe Orze won't turn his season around. After all, he has poor strikeout (18.8%) and walk (10.6%) rates. However, his FIP (3.27) and expected ERA (3.75) suggest he's been unlucky. This season, he's allowed just one home run, and he has an elite average exit velocity of 85.9 mph (94th percentile).
Twins' Eric Orze may be getting unlucky this year
Last year with the Rays, Orze's strikeout rate (22.4%) was only a bit better than this year, while his walk rate (10.7%) was roughly the same as this season. Additionally, his FIP (4.05) was much worse than it is this year. Yet, he had a much better ERA (3.02) than this season over 41 2/3 innings.
Since Orze is limiting hard contact at an elite rate, the Twins should remain patient with the right-hander. Obviously, if he could strike more batters out and limit walks at a higher rate, Orze would have much better numbers. But that's not the type of reliever he is. The Twins acquired him with the knowledge that inducing weak contact is his strength. If Minnesota continues to give him opportunities, the underlying metrics suggest he should start performing much better.
The Twins' bullpen is undoubtedly the team's biggest weakness and must be improved if the club wants any chance at remaining in the playoff race. As of now, most signs point to the Twins selling at the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. However, with a rotation led by Joe Ryan and one of the top offenses in the American League, it's not far-fetched to suggest the club would be in a playoff spot right now if the bullpen were average rather than arguably the worst in the league. Minnesota's relievers rank 29th in ERA (5.51), 27th in strikeout rate (20.0%), 28th in walk rate (11.7%) and 28th in opponent batting average (.262).
While the Twins may need to get rid of several relievers, Orze shouldn't be one of them, at least not yet. Obviously, if Orze continues struggling over the next month or so, it may be time to remove him from the big-league roster. Orze does have a minor-league option remaining, so the Twins could give him a Triple-A reset if his struggles persist.
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