After pitching five scoreless innings with six strikeouts while allowing just one hit and one walk in his last outing with Triple-A St. Paul on Sunday, right-handed starting pitcher Zebby Matthews holds a 2.57 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 14 innings over his last three starts. Matthews' recent hot stretch comes after two rough starts to begin the year, where he surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks while collecting five strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings.
Matthews could eventually end up as a bullpen arm, but his recent hot stretch proves the Twins should hold off on converting the righty to a reliever. Even though Matthews has a career 5.92 ERA in 117 innings across 25 MLB appearances, the 25-year-old has an elite 24.7% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate in his two big-league seasons. Last year, Matthews' fastball averaged 96.2 mph (80th percentile) while he posted above-average chase (30.2%) and whiff rates (27.5%).
Unfortunately, Matthews' fastball is rather flat. Last season, opponents hit .357 against his four-seamer while slugging .616 (557 pitches). Additionally, opponents hit above .300 against his cutter, changeup, curveball and sinker, but managed just a .151 batting average and a .255 slugging percentage against his slider across 197 pitches.
If Matthews wants to increase his chances of getting back in the Twins' rotation and sticking there, he'll need to stop consistently leaving pitches up in the zone and/or add another effective pitch to complement his slider, which features more vertical than horizontal break.
Twins should keep Matthews in a starting pitching role for now
A Louis Varland-type career path could very well be in the cards for Matthews. But for now, the Twins should keep him as a starter, especially since starting pitching depth is important.
Minnesota has proved it would rather have lefty Connor Prielipp in its rotation over Matthews after recalling the top pitching prospect last week as a corresponding move to placing righty Mick Abel on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. But if another starter suffers an injury while Abel is sidelined, Matthews would likely be the next man up in the rotation. If the Twins were to convert Matthews to a reliever, the team would be in a much worse spot in the event of another starting pitching injury. Abel's injury marked the Twins' third to a starting pitcher this year; righty Pablo López is sidelined for the season after undergoing an internal brace procedure, and righty David Festa is on the 60-day IL with right shoulder impingement.
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