Minnesota Twins fans are used to not spending money in the winter. But this year’s “right-sizing” may come at the worst time considering the current state of the American League.
The balance of power in Major League Baseball has continued to shift toward the National League this offseason with big-spending owners trying to out do each other. While Juan Soto followed Shohei Ohtani’s exodus to the National League last winter, the American League is creating a golden opportunity for the Twins that they’re unwilling to take advantage of.
The Minnesota Twins should be happy they’re not in the National League
The National League’s dominance began during the 2019 season. The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros in a seven-game World Series and kicked off a run of three straight champions residing from the senior circuit with the Los Angeles Dodgers winning in 2020 and the Atlanta Braves winning in 2021.
The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers brought The Commissioner’s Trophy back to the American League but their opponents represented a shift in philosophy.
The Philadelphia Phillies were a Wild Card team in the 2022 World Series but they were fueled by owner John Middleton’s willingness to spend “stupid money.” Bryce Harper and Trea Turner were the beneficiaries of that strategy and the Phillies exceeded those expectations with an appearance in the Fall Classic.
The Arizona Diamondbacks followed suit in 2023. Stuck in a division with the Los Angeles Dodgers' $236 million payroll, the Diamondbacks were able to reach the World Series with a payroll of $124 million. When they arrived, they lost in five games to a Rangers team that featured Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a $214 million payroll.
National League owners were paying attention to this and the Dodgers acted on it by signing Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract last winter. While most of Ohtani’s money is deferred it was part of a spending spree that included a five-year, $136.5 million contract for Tyler Glasnow and a 12-year, $325 million deal for Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The end result was a $326 million payroll that brought a World Series to Los Angeles and put other big market owners on notice. New York Mets owner Steve Cohen was one of many to act on this by signing Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract but other National League clubs have followed suit with five of the top eight payrolls in baseball entering 2025.
This is a big reason why Cohen dismissed the idea that the Mets earned a victory in the cross-town rivalry by luring Soto away from the New York Yankees and admitted he has bigger issues in the National League.
“They’re in the American League,” Cohen said of the Yankees via a piece by The Athletic writers Tim Britton and Andy McCullough. “I don’t have to face them until the World Series. I’ve got the Dodgers, and the Dodgers are equally formidable.”
The Minnesota Twins are missing a golden opportunity in the American League
The National League’s rise to power could be looked at differently for an American League team like the Twins.
After slashing payroll by $30 million last season, it’s depressing to see Derek Falvey and the front office count beans to figure out how to sign a first baseman or a left-handed reliever. But it’s even more depressing to think a little extra money could go a long way while their rivals are spinning their wheels.
The Cleveland Guardians traded Andres Giminez to the Toronto Blue Jays during the Winter Meetings. Bo Naylor and Lane Thomas have also been shopped around as the Guardians try to do the type of payroll slashing the Twins did last winter.
The Chicago White Sox have also refused to add players as Jerry Reinsdorf decides whether to sell the team and the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have been quiet as they look to build off playoff appearances in 2024.
Even the American League’s traditional big spenders have largely underwhelmed. The Yankees made headlines by trading for Cody Bellinger on Tuesday but the Boston Red Sox have been more smoke than fire at this stage of the offseason outside of signing Aroldis Chapman. The Seattle Mariners are considering trading Luis Castillo and the Rangers’ lone significant move has been the addition of Nathan Eovaldi.
You could argue that the Twins are choosing a good year to stand pat when so many teams are reluctant to improve. But you could also point at an opportunity to drop the hammer and make a legitimate run at a championship in 2025.
In some ways, it’s another winter where Twins fans will have to eat their vegetables and swallow a quiet winter. If the Pohlad’s intention to sell the team goes through, they could wind up with the type of aggressive owner that’s willing to put money into the team like the National League powers have over the past few seasons.
That would be a win for fans but it likely won’t save the team in 2025, leaving a golden opportunity on the table next season.