Back in July it seemed like the Minnesota Twins might make up for a winter of inactivity and pull off a trade at the deadline. That didn't happen, and the team ended up running out of gas and crashing out of the playoff race before the finish line a month later.
While the Twins frustratingly stood pat, it ended up not being for a lack of effort. Before the deadline arrived there were rumors that the team could make a trade for pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who was with the Toronto Blue Jays at the time. He fit the bill as a potential key addition to the starting rotation and would have been a perfect replacement for Joe Ryan after he was lost for the season just a week after the deadline passed.
As it turns out, the Twins not trading for Kikuchi is a move that has ended up aging better than expected.
Twins' decision to not trade for Yusei Kikuchi has actually paid off in the long run
It goes without saying that the Twins not making a move at the deadline was weak stuff and directly imapcted the historic collapse that followed not long after. Making a meaningful trade -- because the deal they did make doesn't count and you probably can't remember who it was for -- likely wouldn't have prevented the meltdown from happening.
To be clear, the mine that the Twins avoided stepping on was not overpaying to acquire Kikuchi from the Blue Jays. Minnesota was reportedly in "serious talks" with Toronto when Houston swooped in with a Godfather offer that blew everything else out of the water.
At the time it felt like a good idea to not match what the Astros were willing to pay and news that Kikuchi has left in free agency to sign elsewhere makes the decision age even better. If Kikuchi wasn't willing to return to Houston and the Astros weren't willing to pay him three-years and $63 million, then there's no way the outcome would have been different had he come to Minnesota.
The only difference is the Twins aren't down three players including top prospects like Houston is. Not only that, but the deal that Kikuchi signed with the Los Angeles Angels is on par with what Minnesota is paying Pablo Lopez, which makes it even less likely that the Twins would have made an offer to keep him around.
Above everything else, the Astros' gamble on Kikuchi didn't pay off in the postseason. Houston was one-and-done, getting swept by Detroit in the AL Wild Card.
It was frustrating to see the Twins be unserious at the trade deadline, but the move to not overpay for Kikuchi in a desperate attempt to make something happen might have been the best decision the front office made all season. He wouldn't have prevented the meltdown and might have made it look worse given everything Minnesota would have given up to beat Houston's offer.
Given the Twins' recent history of making horrendous trades, this is a win that should be applauded for how much potential embarrassment was avoided.
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