A lockout feels inevitable at this point. Unless MLB and the players association shockingly agree to a new collective bargaining agreement before Dec. 1, teams will be unable to make offseason moves once December arrives. One has to wonder if teams will make big signings before the lockout, or if the owners will wait to see if the league's financial system changes drastically once a new CBA is agreed upon.
Based on the 2021-22 lockout, fans can probably expect teams to make big signings in November. The lockout began on Dec. 2, 2021, and ended on March 10, 2022, when a five-year CBA was ratified.
Before the 2021-22 lockout, the Texas Rangers signed Corey Seager to a 10-year, $325 million contract and Marcus Semien to a seven-year, $175 million contract. The New York Mets signed Max Scherzer to a three-year, $130 million contract, Starling Marte to a four-year, $78 million contract, Eduardo Escobar to a two-year, $20 million contract and Mark Canha to a two-year, $26.5 million contract. Additionally, the Tigers signed Javier Báez (six years and $140 million) and Eduardo Rodriguez (five years and $77 million) and the Mariners added Robbie Ray (five years and $115 million). Several other big signings happened before the lockout as well.
Teams might want to spend big in free agency before this offseason's lockout, especially since there could be a new salary structure with the new CBA. The Twins could be one of the teams looking to spend next month, as Tom Pohlad said he intends to increase payroll.
It's also worth noting that several big signings in the 2021-22 offseason occurred after the lockout. After the lockout, the Colorado Rockies signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal and the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Freddie Freeman to a six-year, $162 million contract.
Still, the Twins should attempt to sign the free agents they want before the lockout. If they don't, they risk losing them to other teams.
Will the looming MLB lockout extend through the regular season?
The upcoming (likely) lockout appears very different from the last one, which could affect how teams operate in November. This time around, the owners are pushing hard for a salary cap/floor structure. Meanwhile, the players association clearly doesn't want any kind of cap, as it would limit the earning potential of the top players. Because of the widely different views between owners and players, many speculate the lockout could extend through the regular season, canceling games. In fact, some believe the entire 2027 season could be canceled.
The 2004-05 NHL season was completely canceled due to a lockout. It was the same situation, as the players didn't want a salary structure, but the owners did. The owners ended up on top, as the new CBA implemented a hard salary cap for the league. There's a strong chance MLB will have a similar outcome, which would be unfortunate not only for players but also for fans excited for the 2027 season.
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