FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski releases his ZiPS projections for each MLB team before Opening Day each year. For Minnesota Twins fans unfamiliar with ZiPS, it is a computer projection system created by Szymborski that estimates baseline expectations of players and projects future production using similar past and present players.
On Wednesday, Szymborski published his ZiPS projections for the 2025 Twins, where Szymborski sees the Twins competing for the AL Central crown at around 85 to 88 wins.
2025 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota #Twins, now LIVE at @FanGraphs.https://t.co/CQYIK6dtrz#ZiPS25
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 14, 2025
The major takeaway from these projections was the bullpen numbers, which Szymborski called one of, if not, the best in MLB.
“Jhoan Duran ought to have a better season in 2025, and now that the Twins have announced that Griffin Jax won’t be moved back to the rotation in 2025, the two of them will form a deadly one-two late-inning punch. Brock Stewart is also projected to have a better season – though his sore shoulder will need to cooperate – and aside from Jorge Alcala and Michael Tonkin, ZiPS projects every significant Minnesota reliever to have an ERA under 4.00.”
Twins bullpen could get even stronger with free-agent acquisition
Duran and Jax are one of the best bullpen duos in MLB. Duran looks to remain an outstanding closer with 1.9 fWAR in 61 innings pitched. Jax, who had the highest fWAR among Twins relievers last year at 2.6, will accumulate only 1.5 fWAR, but as we saw last year, Jax is more than capable of outperforming those metrics.
Up next is Cole Sands, a pleasant surprise from last season as a reliever. Sands is projected to decline slightly to 0.9 fWAR, which wasn’t far from his 1.5 fWAR in 2024.
Stewart was limited to 15.2 innings last year due to that afformentoned shoulder injury, so returning to his 2023 form would be huge for the Twins. ZiPS has Stewart pitching 27 innings, accumulating 0.5 fWAR, and possessing the highest K% on the team with 31.3%.
There’s a lot to like about this bullpen entering the 2025 season, especially if they can add depth with signing Nick Anderson. While the Twins are not expecting to make any substantial reinforcements via free agency or trade before this offseason, the team can still win the wide-open AL Central if everyone stays healthy.