The Minnesota Twins were expected to lean into the trade market this offseason and after four long months, a report by Dan Hayes of The Athletic stated that the Twins were talking to the San Diego Padres about a trade for Christian Vázquez.
This was to be expected as the Twins have been interested in dumping Vázquez’s $10 million salary this offseason. But what was expected was a line at the end of the report that stated Minnesota is one of several teams interested in Padres pitcher Dylan Cease.
A former American League Central rival with the Chicago White Sox, Cease had a solid year with the Padres, going 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA, a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and an 8.5 percent walk rate over 189.1 innings in 2024. If the Padres weren’t involved in cost-cutting measures, they probably would keep Cease but with a $13.75 million salary for 2025, they could be looking to move on from the 28-year-old.
So what could it take to land another frontline starter in Minnesota? Let’s take a look.
Jose Berríos, Corbin Burnes trades could be a baseline for the Twins to land Dylan Cease
We can look at two trades in recent history to try and find a baseline for a deal. The first is last spring’s trade involving Corbin Burnes.
Burnes was the ace for the Milwaukee Brewers but was entering his last season before free agency. With the clock ticking, the Brewers traded Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for infielder Joey Ortiz, pitcher D.L. Hall and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.
Burnes was worth it for Baltimore as the righthander went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA in his lone season. But the Orioles also wound up paying a steep price. Ortiz became the Brewers’ everyday third baseman and hit .239/.329/.398 with 11 homers, 60 RBI and 11 stolen bases last year while Hall battled through injuries to go 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA.
Both Ortiz (No. 63 entering 2024) and Hall (No. 75 in 2023) were top 100 prospects at one point in their minor league careers, signaling the Twins might have to pay up to land Cease.
There’s also the 2021 trade that sent Jose Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays. Berríos had a little more team control, as he was set to become a free agent after the 2022 season. But the Twins acquired two top 100 prospects for his services, Austin Martin (No. 19 by Baseball America in 2021) and Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 69 in 2021).
Martin has become a reserve outfielder for the Twins while Woods Richardson broke out in 2024 going 5-5 with a 4.17 ERA in his age-23 season. Both players were serviceable pieces while the Blue Jays got a solid return in Berrios, who has gone 44-34 with a 4.07 ERA with Toronto over the past four seasons.
Luke Keaschall, Zebby Matthews could be involved in Twins’ trade for Dylan Cease
If we look at those two deals as baselines, the Twins may have to give up a lot to acquire Cease. We also have to consider that Vázquez could be part of the deal as Minnesota looks to dump his salary.
Regardless, the Twins would have to give up a pair of top 100 prospects or one on the list's fringe to acquire Cease. Current major leaguers Brooks Lee or David Festa fit that category but they seem like long-term pieces of the Twins' future. Hayes also noted that Padres general manager A.J. Preller generally hunts for high-upside talent while the Twins would prefer to send multiple mid-to-high-range prospects to replenish San Diego’s depth.
It’s unlikely the Twins would include top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez in a deal. But they may be willing to ship their other prospects that made Baseball America’s list, Luke Keaschall and Zebby Matthews.
Keaschall has come on strong despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer and many are expecting bigger things from him in 2025. While many see him as an eventual second baseman, his path to the majors could be blocked with Lee or Royce Lewis at second base. While he also played first base at times last season, a long-term future there has not been discussed, which could make him expendable.
Matthews is also an intriguing piece but may be available due to his limited upside and the pipeline of pitching in the Twins system. Baseball America projected him as a No. 4 starter in their top 100 rankings on Wednesday and Marco Raya (No. 5 Twins prospect according to MLB Pipeline) or Andrew Morris (No. 6) could take his place – assuming Raya or Morris aren’t thrown into the deal in place of Matthews.
Could Keaschall and Matthews be enough to acquire Cease from the Padres? Or could the Twins throw in a mid-range prospect such as C.J. Culpepper or Brandon Winokur to complete the deal? Would the Padres be interested in a middle-tier package including Morris, Raya and a prospect in the 10-20s? Or will Vázquez be involved in the deal, requiring the Twins to add another prospect?
They’re all factors that should be considered. But the price may be worth the risk to add Cease to the Twins’ rotation in 2025.