In a perfect world, the Minnesota Twins would keep Pablo López. In two seasons as the Twins ace, he’s solidified the top of the rotation and should be the Twins’ Opening Day starter in 2025. But unfortunately, the Twins do not live in a perfect world.
Twins Executive Chairman Joe Pohlad has run payroll with an iron fist as he looks to sell the team. With the Twins priced out of a skyrocketing free-agent market, they have to consider trading some of their best assets to survive which has led ESPN’s Jeff Passan to mention that the team is listening to offers on López.
It’s a bad situation for Twins fans but what if a team makes an offer they can’t refuse? And what if that team has one of the best farm systems in baseball and a major league asset to send in return?
That team could be the Baltimore Orioles and they could have enough to offer to make a trade for López.
Pablo López trade rumors are an unfortunate reality for the Minnesota Twins
This is a rough situation for Twins fans. López is the type of player a team like the Twins should build around, posting a 26-18 record with a 3.87 ERA since coming to Minnesota from the Miami Marlins in January 2023. He also is durable, logging 379.1 innings over the past two seasons.
The best part? López is locked into a four-year, $73.5 million extension and is set to make $21.75 million in each of the next three seasons. While that may seem like a lot, this year’s free-agent crop such as Max Fried ($27.25 million), Blake Snell ($31.26 million) and Yusei Kikuchi ($21 million), are making about the same amount of money annually, giving the Twins a discount from the market.
So why would they want to trade him? Well, there’s the payroll situation.
KSTP-TV’s Darren Wolfson reported earlier this week that ownership remains steadfast in their desire to have a payroll of around $130 million this season. The Twins currently sit at $142 million according to FanGraphs and while Wolfson said that the Twins have an offer for Chris Paddack, who is set to make $7.5 million next season, it’s not something they can “wrap their arms around,” which could leave Falvey to “make a move he doesn’t want to make.”
At first glance, it means salary dumping Paddack for a prospect. But it could also mean pivoting to a more desirable trade chip. The Twins reportedly listened to offers on Carlos Correa at this year’s Winter Meetings and a few days later, López was mentioned in Passan’s report. Passan also mentioned that talks could go beyond the listening stage for an offer.
The Baltimore Orioles may have enough to trade for Pablo López
If the discussions go past the listening stage, it becomes a matter of who could give the Twins enough to trade for López. Wolfson reported that the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs would be interested but the Orioles may be the best suitor considering what they have to offer.
Baltimore has been a buyer in the trade market before, sending infielder Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall to the Milwaukee Brewers for Corbin Burnes last February. The deal wasn’t received well at the time with CBS Sports’s R.J. Anderson giving the Brewers a “C” in his trade grades, but Ortiz became an everyday Milwaukee player while bouncing between the Brewers and Triple-A Nashville.
An important caveat is that Burnes had one year of team control and was set to become a free agent. With three years of team control remaining, López should command a bigger haul including first baseman Ryan Mountcastle.
Wolfson mentioned many in the Twins organization are fans of Mountcastle. A runner-up to Carlos Santana for the American League Gold Glove Award last year, Mountcastle’s 113 OPS+ is good enough to solve the Twins' first base problem and give them an affordable option with a projected salary of $6.6 million.
From there, the Twins could tap into the MLB’s sixth-ranked farm system according to FanGraphs. Trading Mountcastle would open the door for Baltimore’s top prospect, Coby Mayo to play at first base but the Twins could inquire about major league-ready starters Chayce McDermott (No. 5 in MLB Pipeline’s rankings) or Brandon Young (No. 18) to fill the whole López would leave behind.
It may be a reach to suggest the Twins could land Mountcastle, McDermott and Young for López. But it might be the type of deal that pries the right-hander out of Minnesota. Until the Twins’ payroll situation is resolved, rumors like this will keep popping up and fans have to hope that if a deal happens, it will be as fruitful as this hypothetical deal.