The Minnesota Twins are entering a big week on the calendar. Series against the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners will be important as they look to stay in a wide-open playoff race in the American League. But the Twins will also have to decide what they want to do ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, where there are compelling arguments both to buy and sell.
It creates an unenviable position for Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll. But the worst thing he can do is nothing.
Doing nothing feels like a fair compromise. While the Twins are one game out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, they aren’t likely to make a deal that would transform them into World Series contenders. Selling would also be a solid choice with top assets like Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers. But dealing one or both players would change a clubhouse dynamic that is their biggest strength.
Instead, the Twins can talk themselves into how this team has played itself into contention as constructed. But that choice has several short- and long-term implications that can damage the franchise.
The Twins are one move away from a playoff push or a full reset
In the short-term, the Twins are a team that is in contention, but could use some help. Minnesota has seemingly held an open competition in the bullpen since they arrived in Spring Training. While it has produced some gems such as Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez, it also has the third-worst reliever ERA in the majors at 5.03.
Some of that number is inflated with fliers such as Justin Lawrence and players returning from injuries. But there are few relievers that can be trusted in the back half of games. Per MLB.com, the Twins rank 28th in the majors with a .285 batting average allowed and last with a 1.70 WHIP in late and close situations, which are defined as outings in the seventh inning or later in a game where the batting team is leading by one run, tied or trailing by three runs or fewer.
In addition to the bullpen struggles, the Twins rotation is held together by duct tape. Ryan’s last start was pushed back due to arm fatigue and Bailey Ober has already had a stint on the injured list due to elbow problems. Taj Bradley has been solid enough to work his way into the Twins long-term plans, but his inconsistency has popped up at times. While Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp have been effective, both are likely suited for bullpen roles if the Twins make it to the postseason.
Maybe the volatility of the American League could convince the Twins to wait things out. But the state of the pitching staff warrants the Twins should add something if they really want to make a push. Adding a couple of relievers shouldn’t take much, but if the price is too much, selling should be a legitimate option.
Of course, dealing Ryan and Jeffers would cause short-term pain, but it would be a strong way to finish the job that was started at last year’s deadline. While the Twins have been more competitive than expected, their current core has a lot of players with uncertain futures, which could make the real window one that includes top prospects including Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Vahn Lackey.
Most Twins fans don’t have the patience for this, especially since many of the team’s top prospects have failed to live up to the hype. But it also would be better than doing nothing based on the long-term ramifications.
A quiet trade deadline could bring long-term ramifications for the Twins
The trade deadline represents a key moment where the franchise can go one way or the other. While most fans would love to see them buy, even selling off a few pieces would make it clear what Zoll’s long-term vision is.
This is likely less important when it comes to Ryan, where the Twins can still trade him next offseason or ahead of next year’s trade deadline to get value. But that becomes a problem for Jeffers, who is arguably the top catcher on the trade market after Shea Langeliers landed on the injured list with a torn meniscus on Saturday.
Allowing Jeffers to walk for nothing is a big problem and while the Twins could recoup a draft pick if they offer a qualifying tender, it carries the risk of Jeffers accepting it and making roughly $24 million next season.
That reality makes it sound like if the Twins do anything, trading Jeffers should be at the top of the list and even that would be better than if they stood pat, especially when considering the reaction of the clubhouse and the fans.
The clubhouse would obviously love it if the Twins added at the deadline and be deflated if a player or two were traded away. But doing nothing would create more confusion as to where the team is heading and could impact their ability to add in the upcoming offseason.
The same goes for the fans, who watched the Twins tear it down a year ago but have refused to pick a lane since. If they want to build toward the future, selling would be an option. If they want to remain competitive, buying is required. But sitting on their hands would create more questions than answers.
In the end, something has to happen at the deadline and whether it’s buying or selling, it would be a better option than doing nothing at all.
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