The Minnesota Twins are in the process of playing out the final two weeks of the season and after another late-season collapse, it’s clear changes need to be made. Several veterans who have been key parts of the team could be placed on the trading block as a result and if the Twins were wise, they’d consider trading starting pitcher Bailey Ober.
Ober has been a solid starter over the past few years, compiling a 38-36 record and a 4.12 ERA. He’s also been durable, throwing at least 120 innings in each of the past four seasons. If he throws 17 more innings this season, he will have thrown at least 140 innings during that stretch.
Those numbers have plenty of value for a team like the Twins, who are short on starting pitchers at the major league level and in the pipeline. But with Ober entering his age-31 season, the time may be now to cast a line and see if another team looking for a cheap option for their rotation is willing to bite.
Bailey Ober has become a different kind of ‘Nightmare’ for the Twins
Ober’s traditional numbers make him feel like he’s a lock for next year’s rotation. But his analytics suggest he’s a pitcher due for regression. His best stretch came between the 2023 and 2024 seasons where he went 20-15 with a 3.73 ERA in 57 starts, but he also was able to miss bats with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and an average exit velocity allowed of 87.4 mph.
In the last two seasons, those numbers have taken a dive. Not only has Ober gone 13-15 with a 4.75 ERA in 50 starts, but he’s also seen his strikeout rate plummet to 18.1 percent including a career-low 16.8 percent this season. Opposing hitters have also seen their average exit velocity against Ober jump to 88.8 mph during that time.
The biggest reason for the drop is that Ober is no longer fooling hitters. According to Baseball Savant, Ober logged a 33.5 percent chase rate in 2024 that was in the 92nd percentile among qualifying pitchers. While he also had a strong whiff rate (29.0%), those numbers have dropped to a 29.5 percent chase rate (38th percentile) and a 19.8 percent whiff rate (10th percentile) this season.
Mix in a fastball that averaged 91.7 mph in 2024 but now is among the slowest in baseball at 88.1 mph and Ober isn’t the “Bearded Nightmare” he once was and he could be one of the veterans that needs to be sent packing this offseason.
Bailey Ober could bring the pitching that the Twins’ next core needs
Opposing front offices will look at Ober’s metrics and potentially steer clear. But they may also be enamored by his breaking ball, which still has a plus-11 run value according to Baseball Savant’s metrics. He also still is able to limit his walks with a 6.9 percent rate and a team could decide he’s worth a look as a reclamation project.
The most appealing aspect of Ober, however, may be his cost. After agreeing to a $5.2 million contract last season, Ober is entering his final year of arbitration in 2027. While the results of MLB’s likely lockout could curb some free agent spending, that salary is a solid number for a player on the back end of the rotation and it could entice a pitching-needy team to trade him.
Of course, the Twins don’t have a lot of arms to replace Ober. But that may be the reason they trade him. At age 31, Ober no longer fits the Twins' competitive timeline that should be built around younger players including Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper. While the Twins have more position players on the way including 2025 first-round pick Marek Houston and 2026 first-round pick Vahn Lackey, they need to find the pitching to complement it.
Ober won’t bring as big of a haul as Joe Ryan would this winter. But the Twins could get a flier or two to build their pitching staff of the future. While it seems the Twins are close to contending, three straight lousy Septembers suggest what they’re trying isn’t working and it would be best to be proactive.
With that in mind, Ober is the type of veteran the Twins should be looking to move this winter and the Twins may be able to find a team that’s willing to make that bet.
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