This Sunday evening, the Baseball Hall of Fame's Era Committee will announce the results of this year's Classic Baseball Era ballot. Eight players are in consideration for enshrinement in the Hall, including former stars Dave Parker, Dick Allen, and Luis Tiant.
Next year, the Hall will do the same, but for the Contemporary Era players who made their careers after 1980. Among them, we hope, should be former Twins star and fan favorite Johan Santana.
Santana appeared on his first and only Hall of Fame ballot in the winter of 2018. He received just 2.4% of the BBWAA vote, well short of the 5% mark required to stay on the ballot, and fell off without much fanfare. It was a disappointing result for the former ace who, despite an injury-shortened career, was one of the best pitchers of his era.
During Santana's time in Minnesota, he won two Cy Young awards and finished in the top-five on three other occasions. For his career, Santana was a four-time All Star. He won the ERA title three times and he led the league in strikeouts in three seasons. He also won the pitching Triple Crown in 2006, finishing with 17 wins, a 2.77 ERA, and 245 strikeouts.
Former Twins' star lefty Johan Santana belongs in the Hall of Fame
The case against Santana is that he didn't have the longevity required for entry, and as such doesn't have some of the impressive counting stats that his peers do. It's a fair point, as he totaled just 2,025 innings for his career, pitching across 12 years with the Twins and Mets. However, he was such a force when he was healthy that he still has a strong case for inclusion in the Hall.
Consider another guy in a similar mold - former Dodgers' star Sandy Koufax. Both guys lasted 12 years before succumbing to career-ending shoulder issues. Koufax threw almost exactly 300 innings more than Santana and his 2.77 ERA is a good touch better than Santana's mark of 3.20. Koufax also has him beat in strikeouts, with 2,396 to Santana's 1,988.
However, Santana has a better adjusted ERA+ and, with having to pitch in the steroid-fueled era of the mid-2000's, Santana's job was arguably tougher than that of Koufax. Santana also has Koufax beat in terms of Baseball Reference WAR. Santana's career mark of 51.7 bWAR puts him just outside the top-100 all time, with Koufax a touch below him with 48.9.
The careers of these two pitchers is starkly similar. Both players burned incredibly bright, but unfortunately for far too short a period of time. Where Santana was great in the early part of his career, Koufax really came into his own in his final four seasons.
From 1963-1966, Koufax pitched to a combined 1.86 ERA with a 97-27 record in an astounding 1,192.2 innings. He won three Cy Young awards and an MVP award in that stretch, and had two years with more than 10 bWAR. That late stretch assuredly put him over the top and into the history books forever.
Johan Santana is one of only two Venezuelan-born pitchers to win the Cy Young Award, unanimously winning AL honors twice – 2004 and 2006 with the Minnesota Twins
— MLB (@MLB) October 6, 2024
Santana won the pitcher’s Triple Crown in 2006, one of three seasons in which he led the league in ERA. He is one of… pic.twitter.com/Hg1dgLjmTS
Santana's best stretch was nearly as good. Between 2004-2008, Santana went 86-39 with a 2.82 ERA and 1,189 strikeouts in 1,146.2 innings. He won both of his Cy Young awards during that stretch and his 2.82 ERA was second only to Roger Clemens. He also led the league in innings pitched in that time frame, as well as in fWAR with a sterling 29.8, which was nearly five wins better than Brandon Webb behind him.
After the Twins traded him to New York ahead of the 2008 season, the Mets made him the richest pitcher in the history of the sport. Santana's six-year, $137.5 million contract extension made him the fifth-highest paid player in the game, and gave him the second-highest AAV, behind only Alex Rodriguez. The contract was well deserved at the time, but injuries kept him out for the entire 2011 season and he retired after a lackluster comeback effort in 2012.
Johan Santana was not the best pitcher of all time. Nobody would debate that. However, he was arguably the best pitcher in the league for a five-year stretch, and he has the awards to prove it. He was so good in the time he was healthy that he would have been a shoo-in for Cooperstown if he'd played another five years.
Santana belongs in the Hall of Fame. The BBWAA didn't take his case seriously, but the Era Committees ought to take a long look at it when the time comes and come to the correct decision to enshrine him.