The Minnesota Twins offseason has been underwhelming and any trade discussion has been more about subtracting than adding to the team ahead of the 2025 season. But with free agent prices continuing to skyrocket, the trade market may be their best chance to upgrade – especially at first base.
After a slow start, the first base market has heated up with Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe already changing addresses via trade and one big trade possibly looming pending Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract situation with the Toronto Blue Jays.
While it would be fun to see Guerrero or even top free agent Pete Alonso in a Twins jersey, their payroll situation probably wouldn’t allow it. But there might be an avenue to make a deal and it could be an opportunity to buy low on San Diego Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth.
Jake Cronenworth could solve the Minnesota Twins' problem at first base
Cronenworth arrived in San Diego as part of a five-player trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and has been a key member of the Padres since making his debut at the beginning of the 2020 season.
The COVID-shortened season didn’t stop Cronenworth from making an immediate impact, hitting .285/.354/.477 with four homers and 20 RBI in 54 games and finishing runner-up to Milwaukee’s Devin Williams in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. An All-Star encore followed as Cronenworth hit .266/.340/.460 with 21 homers and 71 RBI in his first full season in 2021 and Cronenworth made his second All-Star team hitting .239/.332/.390 with 17 home runs and 88 RBI in 2022.
The back-to-back All-Star appearances convinced the Padres to sign Cronenworth to a seven-year, $80 million extension in April 2023 but his decline continued. Cronenworth hit just .229/.312/.378 with 10 homers and 48 RBI for the Padres in 2023 and put up better stats, hitting .241/.324/.390 with 17 homers and 83 RBI last season.
The offensive numbers aren’t staggering but are good enough to be a fixture in the middle of the lineup. While Cronenworth has an average barrel percentage (7.8%) and a hard-hit rate in the 29th percentile (36.7%), his 23.1 percent chase rate and 17.1 whiff rate are in the 85th and 89th percentiles respectively according to Baseball Savant. Strong strikeout (18.0%) and walk (9.3%) rates also play in his favor and could improve if he has an everyday position.
Cronenworth has been a second baseman for most of his career but he’s spent more time at first base each of the past two seasons, playing 106 games in 2023 and 85 games in 2024.
While Cronenworth has just one defensive run saved at first base over the past two years, his experience playing the position could be key as Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien have combined for 95 total games at first base in their careers. Miranda has the more extensive experience between the two internal options but had a -6 defensive runs saved in 77 games at first base during the 2022 season, which is why the Twins turned to Joey Gallo in 2023 and Carlos Santana in 2024.
The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have enough reasons to make a Jake Cronenworth trade
It’s easy to pick a player and say someone should trade for him. But for the Twins and Padres, it might be more important why they would want to make a deal.
Cronenworth’s $11.2 million salary for 2025 is a problem but could be a bargain compared to some of the other deals in free agency. Santana got $12 million to return to the Cleveland Guardians earlier this month and Christian Walker (three years, $60 million with the Houston Astros) and Paul Goldschmidt (one year at $12.5 million with the New York Yankees) both cashed in with more extensive resumes than Cronenworth.
The Padres are also in a similar situation as the Twins as they’re looking to add talent while shedding payroll and dealing Cronenworth could be the answer according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
How that deal happens is a mystery. The Twins have prospects to send San Diego, who is looking for help in left field and potentially at catcher and a swap of “salary dump” contracts featuring Christian Vázquez or Chris Paddack along with a young player like Miranda or Julien could make progress on a deal.
Still, there’s a lot of money being exchanged between two teams looking to get rid of it in that scenario. Acquiring Cronenworth could be a risk but the Twins have to take one to improve their team in 2025.