Twins vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Saturday, April 15 (Bank on Mahle's underlying metrics)
By Reed Wallach
The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees continue a four game series in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon.
Minnesota will hope that Tyler Mahle can get better results than his first two starts with the club this season, and his numbers suggest he might. We'll dig into why Mahle may be due for some positive regression real soon and the Yankees' starting pitcher Domingo German may be in for a long year.
Here are the odds for Saturday afternoon's matchup and our best bet:
Twins vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Yankees prediction and pick
Mahle has had some tough luck so far with the Twins. He has allowed five earned runs on only five hits while striking out 13 batters against two walks. He's not allowing a ton of contact, but he has some bad variance when the ball is in play that has led to an inflated ERA, which is why his Fielding independent Pitching (FIP) stands at 2.76.
The same can't be said for German, who has a 5.87 ERA that is backed by a 6.65 FIP. He has walked five batters while striking out only eight and has allowed two home runs in 7 2/3 innings of work across two starts.
Minnesota is hovering around the league average in wRC+, which rates how teams create run scoring opportunities. I believe that they can knock around German and put the pressure on a taxed Yankees bullpen over the last few gamaes.
I'll back the underdog Twins.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.