Twins vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Thursday, August 10 (Maeda Must be Good)

Detroit is leading the season series against Minnesota 6-4 and is going for the series victory today at home with Reese Olson against Kenta Maeda.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (18)
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (18) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Bailey Ober struggled yesterday for the Minnesota Twins against Spencer Torkleson and the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers won 9-5 and are ahead 2-1 in this four-game series with the finale on deck this afternoon in Detroit. The 51-63 Tigers also lead the season series 6-4 over the 60-56 Twins. 

Minnesota still leads the AL Central by 4.5 games but they need a win today with their fifth starter, Kenta Maeda, on the mound. The 3-6 Maeda has a 4.22 ERA in 12 starts and will be opposed by Reese Olson who is 1-5 in 12 appearances for Detroit with a 4.94 ERA.

Detroit is going for the series win at home, and Minnesota will try to respond. Let’s get into the odds for this AL Central matchup.  

Twins vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Tigers prediction and pick

The Minnesota Twins were on a roll before this series, but the Tigers have killed all of the momentum that was helping Minnesota pull away from the rest of the division. Despite Detroit’s success against Minnesota so far this year, I just struggle to see them taking three of four in this series. 

The Tigers have improved from last season, but they’re still 29th in team OPS and runs scored, so they’re an abysmal offensive team that put up nine runs yesterday against Bailey Ober and the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins bullpen has been a bit shaky lately. Since the start of June Twins relievers have a combined ERA of 4.97 which is 24th in the MLB over that stretch. 

I do worry about the bullpen, but I expect Maeda to be great for Minnesota because he’s been strong in his limited work this year and has a 3.45 FIP. Maeda is 88th percentile in strikeout rate with a 77th percentile whiff rate. He does get hit hard when hitters connect, but Detroit has only hit 106 home runs this season and doesn’t have many power threats in their lineup.

The Twins are still going to run away with the AL Central, so I’ll back them to win this game on the road. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change