Twins vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Monday, August 7 (Lopez Strong Second Half)

The Twins swept the Diamondbacks over the weekend to extend their lead in the AL Central, but they could have trouble with the Tigers in Game 1 of four.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49)
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

It’s finally happening, the Minnesota Twins are finally grabbing hold of the AL Central and with four straight wins are now leading by 4.5 games over Cleveland at 59-54. It was bound to happen eventually, but they’ll need to keep that lead with four games against a divisional opponent this week. The 49-62 Detroit Tigers will host the Twins for this series and they lead the season series 4-3.

For Game 1 the Twins will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez who is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts. Lopez will be opposed by Joey Wentz who is 2-9 for Detroit with a 6.37 ERA. The Twins are road favorites tonight, so let’s get into the odds.

Twins vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Minnesota hasn’t been great as a favorite on the road this year. They are 14-13 which doesn’t sound too bad, but is 21st in the league in terms of winning percentage as a road favorite and considering the odds they haven’t been a profitable bet in those scenarios. Today, they could struggle to win this particular matchup facing a lefty on the mound.

Joey Wentz pitched on July 29 and went 4.2 scoreless innings against Miami. That came after about a month layoff. He could be strong again because Minnesota is 28th in OPS against left-handed pitchers this year and have spent most of the season in dead last. Since July 1, they have improved and have a .704 OPS which ranks 20th.

If it wasn’t for that recent bit of improvement over a fairly significant sample size, I would be very interested in Detroit on the moneyline, but instead I’ll go with the under. Minnesota still struggles, but could manage a bit of offense off Wentz and can definitely get to the Detroit bullpen which is 19th in ERA this year. 

Pablo Lopez has an outstanding 3.39 FIP and has been great lately. I expected a fantastic second half from him and he’s delivered on that expectation in his first three starts after the All-Star break. Give me the under in Game 1 of this AL Central series. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change